I don't know how much longer Disney will last without major layoffs and cost cuts
(media.kotakuinaction2.win)
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For what it is worth (since I watch Valliant for most of my sourcing), he has 2 advantages.
He actually does financial analysis and risk planning as a day job, and Youtube is just a hobby. He also frequently shows his work that you can tell he isnt just pulling numbers out of his ass when it comes to the financial work, and his analysis of the typical "Hollywood Math" seems to line up with people who are known Hollywood insiders (like Chris Gore).
He is close friends with WDW Pro, who is one of the most accurate Disney insiders in that sphere, and who has provided him with documents that back up some of his stances.
So it absolutely could be wrong. But he is probably a lot more right than just some rando.
Also his estimate is a lowball, so most likely the actual losses are greater than what he calculated.