A hot civil war would only start when some group of elites have claimed stake in some alternate power structures and positioned them in opposition to the federal government's power, and either side does something to endanger that power. What random peasants believe or do is irrelevant.

This is why the federal-state delineation of power in the US is so important. It gives us the opportunity to have real fractional power at the local level where we can actually influence things. If we can't unite and get our state governments to support us against the feds, then there's nothing we can do. (No, stategovs aren't the only source of parallel power. For example wealthy families and businesses can wield a ton of influence, but most of them are currently captured by the left.)

Now if you're talking about random violence happening around the country in response, yeah I can believe that.