Trump separated himself from the pack in 2016 by campaigning on building the wall, deporting illegals, draining the swamp, and locking up Hillary.
If he tries running on the same or similar issues this time around, the stench of bullshit will be too much to ignore except for his most devoted followers.
IMO, he'll probably run on "I'm not Biden," and I'm sure with how bad Biden is, he'll win just off of that.
The sad part is, this will be another wasted election to try and get an actual change candidate who won't sell out as much. Too bad Rand Paul has a terrible sense of what grassroots Republican voters want. Last time around, he was pandering to try in bring in more black voters. Fucking eh, what a mess.
When given a choice between Biden and Trump in 2024, most normies will foolishly choose Biden because they impulsively seethe when they even see the orange man.
Trump's chances of winning 2024 against even Biden are honestly quite abysmal.
In the dark timeline where he becomes the R nominee in 2024, I still would vote for Trump. I will vote for whoever the R nominee is in 2024 but I prefer someone new without Trump's baggage.
Look at my previous comment in another thread to see what Mastriano's problems in PA are:
https://kotakuinaction2.win/p/16ZDcSGVd9/x/c/4TnOijacrKN
Trump will face the exact same problems in 2024 nationwide if he is the nominee.
You don't want candidates that are absolute poison to suburbs in swing states. Trump in 2016 didn't have the 1/6 stigma.
I like Rand Paul but even if he was excellent at campaigning he is not my favorite pick for 2024. I disagree with Rand Paul's libertarian views when it comes to big tech. Rand Paul believes that the govt should not regulate at all against their bias.
In terms of possible 2024 candidates:
Kari Lake would be the most based on policy and she has real charisma.
Glenn Youngkin would be okay on policy but he is excellent at campaigning.
Youngkin would also be the most palatable candidate to suburbs so he likely would have the highest electability.
Ron DeSantis is the balance between Lake and Youngkin. DeSantis fuses pretty good policy positions with a high level of electability. DeSantis lacks Lake's charisma though.
My personal ranking for 2024 would be
Big gap in quality