If Musk can discredit the [claimed] user base vs. advertising revenue, it could crash the value of Twitter stock, then Musk can re-submit a buyout price at a lower number than the original offer.
If Musk is right and Twitter's userbase is 90% bots, not the 5% they claimed during initial negotiations, then the original agreed-upon price was based on fraud in two different ways: they defrauded their original stockholders to drive the price up to a point where $54.20 was a reasonable price-per-share, then defrauded Elon specifically by providing fabricated evidence they hadn't defrauded the current owners.
I think convincing a judge (or a jury) that it's 6% wouldn't have much of an impact, and enough lawyers might be able to swing 10%, but anything higher than that, and Twitter isn't going to be able to plead ignorance or incompetence with any plausibility.
If Musk can discredit the [claimed] user base vs. advertising revenue, it could crash the value of Twitter stock, then Musk can re-submit a buyout price at a lower number than the original offer.
Musk wins that way. Can it happen?
Musk currently has a contract forcing him to buy at $54.20. He has to convince a delaware judge to let him out of that first.
I personally think he will lose and be forced to buy it at the original price…
I believe this guy has the best analysis on mergers :
https://youtu.be/XXdmIETK6-0
If Musk is right and Twitter's userbase is 90% bots, not the 5% they claimed during initial negotiations, then the original agreed-upon price was based on fraud in two different ways: they defrauded their original stockholders to drive the price up to a point where $54.20 was a reasonable price-per-share, then defrauded Elon specifically by providing fabricated evidence they hadn't defrauded the current owners.
Musk just needs to convince them that its greater than 5%
I think convincing a judge (or a jury) that it's 6% wouldn't have much of an impact, and enough lawyers might be able to swing 10%, but anything higher than that, and Twitter isn't going to be able to plead ignorance or incompetence with any plausibility.
Oof! I have lost all hope.
Thing is, the contract was explicitly hinged on all Twitter's SEC filings being 100% accurate. And they claimed 5% bots to the SEC
He addresses this at 4:40 in the video.
“In delaware company law that is a very high standard”