This is an excellent take, but I have just one minor quibble. They're not psychologically abusing their base. They're psychologically abusing everyone else at the behest of their base because they know their base is driven solely by hatred of the rest of the country. All this kung flu bullshit is about terrorizing everyone else into obeying their betters. The problem they have is people are starting to realize that giving abusers what they want doesn't stop the abuse, it guarantees more abuse. As you said they've boxed themselves into a corner by catering to progressive abusers who have them by the balls because while the they can't win elections without their support they need support from people that are less hateful and more sane than them as well. So they either either back down and lose the primary (and then the general) or keep feeding the beast and lose the general.