I doubt Trump will save anything he had his chance
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It all boils down to whether the "progressives" are just a small group of the overall voter pool and if the moderate Democrats are elastic or inelastic in response to violence in the streets.
We differ on two points here.
One, I think you are underestimating the size of the progressive wing. Youth and suburban women are sadly increasingly brainwashed to become cultural leftists. They are growing in size not shrinking.
Two, Will the "moderate" Democrats reach a breaking point by 2024?
I have my doubts that they would vote for the stick in 2024 if ever.
You bring up some interesting points and I would prefer that your scenario turns out to be true.
It's happened in New York repeatedly. It's how you get mayors like Rudy Giuliani.
When the voters see enough violence outside their front door, they know which side will sort things out.