Assuming for a moment that the 95% figure is correct (i.e., that which will prevail), then that means that there are approximately 320,000 ballots to be counted.
Biden needs a net gain of 117,000 to overtake the Bad Orange Man. That means he needs to take 218,500 of the votes, which is 68.3%.
Seems unlikely, but the SJWs have been making claims about how unprecedentedly D the late-counted ballots are. I have also not looked at what percentage he has been getting. Just looking at the difference here, it's 23,289 vs. 3858 - or 85.8%.
Remember when a few thousand votes came in overnight from Michigan, and they were ALL for Biden? It's so statistically unlikely that even if all the votes were meant to be for Biden it's more likely that a voter circled the wrong bubble or a counter accidentally counted one ballot incorrectly (i.e. false positive) and Trump would've gotten a vote that way.
Has anybody figured out what the actual probability of that happening is?
I'm no math guy, but it seems like you could take the voter registration percentages in those counties and calculate a probability distribution of heads/tales on a weighted coin to approximate it.
There's a lot of mathematics about the false positive paradox. I don't know what the exact false positive rate for filling out a form is, but if a person misfills a ballot in 1 out of 45,000 occurences or more often, this is considered statistically significant at the .95 level (5% or less). At the .90 percent level it's up to 1 in 56,000
That means he needs to take 218,500 of the votes, which is 68.3%.
Check the margins on these magic mail-in ballots though. 69% is the low end. It's often 85%-100% in some batches. There were batches that went 100% Biden in, I believe, PA, WI, and somewhere else, perhaps MI.
68.3% is, sadly, well within the range of current reporting. Actual fair voting? I rather doubt it, but it certainly lines up with the reporting.
They may succeed (not counting recounts) in stealing PA, GA, and AZ, for an absolute blowout. It would be completely illegitimate in my opinion, but they could certainly call it that way.
I was holding off the blackpill over the last few days, while many others were giving up, but we're right on the line of making a Trump victory completely impossible, until it goes to the courts at least. If they steal PA, GA, or AZ, Trump can't win without recounts.
I knew going to the courts was likely, but I was hoping to pull out the cleanest win possible in the current situation, take those three states for Trump, and prevent that occurrence. But, again, based on current margins of the magic ballots, those could all go Biden. Bleh.
Assuming for a moment that the 95% figure is correct (i.e., that which will prevail), then that means that there are approximately 320,000 ballots to be counted.
Biden needs a net gain of 117,000 to overtake the Bad Orange Man. That means he needs to take 218,500 of the votes, which is 68.3%.
Seems unlikely, but the SJWs have been making claims about how unprecedentedly D the late-counted ballots are. I have also not looked at what percentage he has been getting. Just looking at the difference here, it's 23,289 vs. 3858 - or 85.8%.
In which case, it will turn out there is still ~5% noncounted ballots left.
aka the ballot printer
Remember when a few thousand votes came in overnight from Michigan, and they were ALL for Biden? It's so statistically unlikely that even if all the votes were meant to be for Biden it's more likely that a voter circled the wrong bubble or a counter accidentally counted one ballot incorrectly (i.e. false positive) and Trump would've gotten a vote that way.
Has anybody figured out what the actual probability of that happening is?
I'm no math guy, but it seems like you could take the voter registration percentages in those counties and calculate a probability distribution of heads/tales on a weighted coin to approximate it.
There's a lot of mathematics about the false positive paradox. I don't know what the exact false positive rate for filling out a form is, but if a person misfills a ballot in 1 out of 45,000 occurences or more often, this is considered statistically significant at the .95 level (5% or less). At the .90 percent level it's up to 1 in 56,000
The printer goes brrr..
We are going to reach a singularity when the printers start printing printers.
Biden wins the popular vote and sets a new record with 891 million votes!
Check the margins on these magic mail-in ballots though. 69% is the low end. It's often 85%-100% in some batches. There were batches that went 100% Biden in, I believe, PA, WI, and somewhere else, perhaps MI.
68.3% is, sadly, well within the range of current reporting. Actual fair voting? I rather doubt it, but it certainly lines up with the reporting.
They may succeed (not counting recounts) in stealing PA, GA, and AZ, for an absolute blowout. It would be completely illegitimate in my opinion, but they could certainly call it that way.
I was holding off the blackpill over the last few days, while many others were giving up, but we're right on the line of making a Trump victory completely impossible, until it goes to the courts at least. If they steal PA, GA, or AZ, Trump can't win without recounts.
I knew going to the courts was likely, but I was hoping to pull out the cleanest win possible in the current situation, take those three states for Trump, and prevent that occurrence. But, again, based on current margins of the magic ballots, those could all go Biden. Bleh.