Less than a week ago, when we were all posting predictions on the latest peace deal, I posted this

"Israel will level another apartment building in Lebanon, and Trump will say it was fair game."

Well here'the latest:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/diplomacy-back-motion-witkoff-kushner-en-route-switzerland-despite-overnight-rising

TLDR: Israel attacked Lebanon when ceasefire was in effect.

So here's the cycle:

1. Trump proposes peace deal to open the Straight, which includes all sides ending hostilities

2. Iran blusters and rejects it citing continued attacks on their funded paramilitaries, before begrudgingly accepting it

3. Israel gets big mad that the peace deal is not regime change and carpet bombs another neighborhood across the border

4. Iran (correctly) complains that the peace deal was violated, and the war is back on

5. GOTO 1

Step 3 is clearly the problematic link. Any non-compromised leader would cut off the rogue party to break the cycle.