Gavin Newsom "I am a proud Zionist".
(twitter.com)
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If he was actually anti-Israel, I'd say that he'd have a shot. But that assumes a fair vote.
He's not anti-Israel though, and forcing him to say these things will split the Dem base worse than the Republicans imo. So he would lose
The only reason either the democrats (or republicans) have a chance is the two party system that FPTP pushes. I think just about any other voting system would reduce the strangehold that they have, even if only marginally.
I did hear that there were attempts to get IRV available in some states like Maine, but that barely has gotten off the ground.
I still think there's a possibility that the republicans might win the next election (which would at least keep the pressure against illegal immigrants), but if I had to give JD Vance a piece of good political adivce right now, that would be to wait until 2032 or 2036 for an attempt at a presidential run. I think he's gotten way too tied to Trump's second term to win without washing his hands of him, and I feel Ron Desantis made a similar mistake by trying to compete against him.
But that being said, I think there is a good silver lining that he'll be roundly and rightfully criticised by democrat voters easily enough if he does manage to win.