The jack black drawing is the accurate one.
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Either outcome is technically possible.
But, fact is, the top one is insanely more likely, and even if you're a dude who manages to make himself look like a hot lady (in the right lighting, at the right angle, while not moving or talking)...there are still only two genders, and you're still just a dude pretending.
Trans people are, by and large, insane fetishists. And the ones that aren't are still mentally ill. Their obsession with thinking they're hotter than real women is hilarious, but also depressing. All the fetishists either actually think, or like to pretend, that all the straight dudes' jaws are hitting the floor when they walk into the room.
You will never be a woman. You will never be Bowsette either.
I see many "trans persons" at my workplace, the vast majority can be spotted many yards away. Only a few could "pass".
Of course there's always the chance some trans persons DID pass & I was fooled, but it's unlikely. There's tell-tale signs that are really hard to hide.
Based on statistical distribution, there are undoubtedly many trans that can pass the visual test.
They are probably naturally effeminate men, still young, probably a lot of surgery involved, well practiced at changing their voice, etc.
The tests they can’t pass are age, genetics, and close inspection.
The older any trans gets the harder it is for them to disguise themselves.
And 100% of men who pretend to be women will always be generically male. Genes don’t lie.
Then once you get close, you’ll definitely notice things. Uncanny valley kind of things. Thinning balding hair. 5 o’clock shadow. Adam’s apple. Broad shoulders. Narrow hips. And no amount of surgery will perfectly mimic a woman’s vagina.
And not a single man who pretends they are women can ever produce an egg in order to get pregnant.