I'm gonna my to explain something that I've never seen articulated anywhere by anyone, left right, commie, musk, gates, anyone.
There is no popular crisis. There isn't
No one should be alarmed that birth rates in the west are what they are OR by what's demonstrated by this graph.
There might be some casual relationship between education and TFR (schooling propagandizes women to have fewer children and/or schooling -> affluent lifestyle -> fewer kids).
But more than likely there is a confounding variable, and that is: life expectancy.
Long story short the longer something lives, the fewer offspring it has. This works across species (elephants vs mice) and within "species" (whites vs blacks). It even works with subgroups within nations (again, whites vs blacks).
Example;
White Norwegians, circa 2025
Average life expectancy: 82-84 years
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~1.5-2 (based on fertility rates)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~1.5-2
Somalis (in Somalia), circa 2025
Average life expectancy: 55-60 years
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~5-6 (based on high fertility rates)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~4-5 (accounting for infant mortality)
Grey Wolves
Average life expectancy: 6-8 years (wild), up to 16 years (captivity)
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~2-4 (annual breeding, 1-2 litters typical)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~10-20 (4-6 pups per litter)
Field Mice
Average life expectancy: 1-2 years (wild), up to 4 years (captivity)
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~5-10 (multiple litters per year)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~25-50 (5-10 pups per litter)
This is why barring external influence like whites giving trillions in aid to Africa, populations remain stable in animal populations even though wolves and mice have completely different TFRs.
Somalis have 5 kids because half of them die in childhood and the others won't live to hit 60.
You're right, that is a good point. It shouldn't be surprising in a biological context.
No one should be alarmed that birth rates in the west are what they are
But I've got to disagree here. There's plenty of reason to be alarmed from a fiscal perspective. They've been pretending growth is infinite and kicking the can down the road. Organized the economy and social support structures as Ponzi schemes. They should be alarmed that birth rates are failing because the existing architecture is ass-backwards. What the US should've done is treat the Boomers as a rare event that would have be managed as an exception instead of treating it as a new status quo.
Until they can fix that, the lower birth rates are an issue. The question is which issue is going to force the other and unfortunately, history suggests they will choose "base of population pyramid not wide enough -> infinity immigration."
The solution is younger generations need to run for office on the promise of obliterating social security. Politicians pandered to boomers because they were so big. Boomers are dying off now. The time to strike is 2028.
The politician who promises to throw boomers under the bus so that the rest of us may thrive will win in a landslide.
"Hey, remember how you pay a shitton in taxes and can't afford a 1200 sqft home, but boomers refuse to move out of their mcmansions because they need a driveway to park their RV and boat while they collect your income each money via social security? How about fuck them, and you keep your money. They're forced to sell. You can finally start a family and buy a suitably sized home."
I'm gonna my to explain something that I've never seen articulated anywhere by anyone, left right, commie, musk, gates, anyone.
There is no popular crisis. There isn't No one should be alarmed that birth rates in the west are what they are OR by what's demonstrated by this graph.
There might be some casual relationship between education and TFR (schooling propagandizes women to have fewer children and/or schooling -> affluent lifestyle -> fewer kids).
But more than likely there is a confounding variable, and that is: life expectancy.
Long story short the longer something lives, the fewer offspring it has. This works across species (elephants vs mice) and within "species" (whites vs blacks). It even works with subgroups within nations (again, whites vs blacks).
Example;
White Norwegians, circa 2025
Average life expectancy: 82-84 years
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~1.5-2 (based on fertility rates)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~1.5-2
Somalis (in Somalia), circa 2025
Average life expectancy: 55-60 years
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~5-6 (based on high fertility rates)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~4-5 (accounting for infant mortality)
Grey Wolves
Average life expectancy: 6-8 years (wild), up to 16 years (captivity)
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~2-4 (annual breeding, 1-2 litters typical)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~10-20 (4-6 pups per litter)
Field Mice
Average life expectancy: 1-2 years (wild), up to 4 years (captivity)
Number of pregnancies carried to term per lifetime (per female): ~5-10 (multiple litters per year)
Number of offspring born per lifetime (per female): ~25-50 (5-10 pups per litter)
This is why barring external influence like whites giving trillions in aid to Africa, populations remain stable in animal populations even though wolves and mice have completely different TFRs.
Somalis have 5 kids because half of them die in childhood and the others won't live to hit 60.
You're right, that is a good point. It shouldn't be surprising in a biological context.
But I've got to disagree here. There's plenty of reason to be alarmed from a fiscal perspective. They've been pretending growth is infinite and kicking the can down the road. Organized the economy and social support structures as Ponzi schemes. They should be alarmed that birth rates are failing because the existing architecture is ass-backwards. What the US should've done is treat the Boomers as a rare event that would have be managed as an exception instead of treating it as a new status quo.
Until they can fix that, the lower birth rates are an issue. The question is which issue is going to force the other and unfortunately, history suggests they will choose "base of population pyramid not wide enough -> infinity immigration."
And that likely reaction is why it alarms me.
The solution is younger generations need to run for office on the promise of obliterating social security. Politicians pandered to boomers because they were so big. Boomers are dying off now. The time to strike is 2028.
The politician who promises to throw boomers under the bus so that the rest of us may thrive will win in a landslide.
"Hey, remember how you pay a shitton in taxes and can't afford a 1200 sqft home, but boomers refuse to move out of their mcmansions because they need a driveway to park their RV and boat while they collect your income each money via social security? How about fuck them, and you keep your money. They're forced to sell. You can finally start a family and buy a suitably sized home."