The argument can be made this is a good thing because now there's two ACTUAL contenders debating it out, more on the lines of 2016 which sharpens Trump up and gives Desantis experience on a national stage. If Trump f's up the nomination WITHOUT party fuckery, then it's on him but Desantis losing to Trump might still be good as look what happened to Cruz after 2016.
We get a split of the party, this is the risk if the party fucks with Trump to favour Desantis. Trump won't back down from that and we could end up with 2nd Bull moose party situation. If I was Desantis, I'd recind my candidacy if ANY evidence of fuckery from the establishment as even with no involvement from Desantis, it'll leave a black mark against him if he continued under that. If he withdraws after establishment corruption efforts, he looks like a Saint and paints a HUGE target on turtleneck and the rest because they may have fucked over Biden getting a 2nd term with their efforts.
Honestly, the only way this splits the party is if Trump loses. There are "Trump only" voters, and there are a fucking shitload of them. If Trump wins, honestly, most of DeSantis supporters will come on board, same way even Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio all did.
Like I've said before, I'm okay with the debates because I can easily see great moments shifting the overton window to the right for a lot of normies, which is why I really want Larry Elder to be up there. (Frankly, I'd vote Elder more than Trump, but he ain't gonna win)
What I'm much more worried about is that the establishment is absolutely funding DeSantis in order to fucking kill them both. In the event that DeSantis wins, he'll lose the core Trump supporters, and each and every one of his current donors are gonna start making demands that he can't fulfill. The Republicans will get fucking destroyed because they will walk DeSantis off a fucking cliff and claim that "this is unquestionable proof that winning elections with Far Right rhetoric is impossible, and we need to go back to true conservatives like Jeb Bush."
Practically yes, though with present company considered I'd like to point out that they are less the "Trump-Cultist bloc" as they are the "America First / anti-establishment bloc".
I bet if Mike Lindell randomly decided to run for president, he could convince many Trump voters to give him their votes, assuming he talked American manufacturing, the federal reserve, and smashing the deep state. Hell even Alex Jones could get a lot of those votes. (theirs and nobody else's...) Ron Paul obviously.
Trump started a movement that many of his voters do not believe DeSantis would continue. You could say they are not strategically wise, but it doesn't necessarily make them a cult of personality. This is not related to anything else you said, I just wanted to get it out of the way before the DeSantis fans in the audience jump on that as proof of something.
Practically yes, though with present company considered I'd like to point out that they are less the "Trump-Cultist bloc" as they are the "America First / anti-establishment bloc".
I'd say the majority are America First block, but the there's still probably around some large minority of Trump supporters that are staunchly: Trump only. And, frankly, (waves hands) we're gonna need them to over-come 5-10 points of voter fraud.
They're not strategically wise at all, but it's not exactly a cult.
I think the better term is "Trump Loyalist". There are some people to whom, Trump was such a boon, they wouldn't go for anyone else, and see them as their representative/leader. I don't even think most Trump supporters are that, but there's a fair few who are. These are people who stopped voting maybe 20 years ago, or even never voted because they were so disenfranchized, they just didn't think it was worth it. And Trump, personally, changed that mentality in them. It's going to be a struggle to keep them without a Trump endorsement, and even then, I don't think a Trump endorsement is as powerful as Trump himself.
For the majority of of the America First populists (of which I see myself as one kind), I don't trust DeSantis because he's surrounding himself and making himself fiscally dependent on worse people than Trump did. There really is a big Mitt Romney feel to his campaign, and I don't think they are doing well.
I think he's actually genuine at resisting wokeness, but I feel like he's actually making himself friends in all the wrong places. To me, the Kanye-Trump blip is stupid as hell, but not dangerous. DeSantis's donors and book deals make me fucking nervous. There is no limit to what the establishment will do to purge the MAGA movement, and destroying both Trump and DeSantis is a major win.
They're not cultists, they were diseffected normies that came out of the wood-work for Trump specifically. You're looking at people in their 40's, 50's, and 60's who never voted until they voted Trump.
As for RFK Jr., He won't be nominated, but I feel like if they treat him badly enough, there will be so many disaffected Leftists that they won't be able to count on a small portion of progressive votes turning out. 2020 got every Leftist voter to vote for Joe Biden. All of them. In 2024, so long as RFK doesn't cuck out like Bernie Sanders did, some chunk of those votes, maybe a million, might not show up.
I hope you're right but we need to monitor the establishment actions as closely as possible, including those that CLAIM to be on the Trump or Desantis teams.
The greatest enemies are those from within than outside
They foolishly believe they can get a return to the old business Reaganism by backing a candidate like Tim Scott or Nikki Haley.
The establishment personally despises Trump for his abrasive personality but they are not getting behind DeSantis because they don't like that DeSantis is truly a conservative with populist leanings.
DeSantis is too right wing populist for the establishment and Trump is too offensive for them from a personality standpoint.
The establishment will be irrelevant in this primary.
They will push Tim and to a lesser degree Nikki until both fail in their home state of SC and the establishment will seethe.
There's two ways this can go:
The argument can be made this is a good thing because now there's two ACTUAL contenders debating it out, more on the lines of 2016 which sharpens Trump up and gives Desantis experience on a national stage. If Trump f's up the nomination WITHOUT party fuckery, then it's on him but Desantis losing to Trump might still be good as look what happened to Cruz after 2016.
We get a split of the party, this is the risk if the party fucks with Trump to favour Desantis. Trump won't back down from that and we could end up with 2nd Bull moose party situation. If I was Desantis, I'd recind my candidacy if ANY evidence of fuckery from the establishment as even with no involvement from Desantis, it'll leave a black mark against him if he continued under that. If he withdraws after establishment corruption efforts, he looks like a Saint and paints a HUGE target on turtleneck and the rest because they may have fucked over Biden getting a 2nd term with their efforts.
Honestly, the only way this splits the party is if Trump loses. There are "Trump only" voters, and there are a fucking shitload of them. If Trump wins, honestly, most of DeSantis supporters will come on board, same way even Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio all did.
Like I've said before, I'm okay with the debates because I can easily see great moments shifting the overton window to the right for a lot of normies, which is why I really want Larry Elder to be up there. (Frankly, I'd vote Elder more than Trump, but he ain't gonna win)
What I'm much more worried about is that the establishment is absolutely funding DeSantis in order to fucking kill them both. In the event that DeSantis wins, he'll lose the core Trump supporters, and each and every one of his current donors are gonna start making demands that he can't fulfill. The Republicans will get fucking destroyed because they will walk DeSantis off a fucking cliff and claim that "this is unquestionable proof that winning elections with Far Right rhetoric is impossible, and we need to go back to true conservatives like Jeb Bush."
Practically yes, though with present company considered I'd like to point out that they are less the "Trump-Cultist bloc" as they are the "America First / anti-establishment bloc".
I bet if Mike Lindell randomly decided to run for president, he could convince many Trump voters to give him their votes, assuming he talked American manufacturing, the federal reserve, and smashing the deep state. Hell even Alex Jones could get a lot of those votes. (theirs and nobody else's...) Ron Paul obviously.
Trump started a movement that many of his voters do not believe DeSantis would continue. You could say they are not strategically wise, but it doesn't necessarily make them a cult of personality. This is not related to anything else you said, I just wanted to get it out of the way before the DeSantis fans in the audience jump on that as proof of something.
I'd say the majority are America First block, but the there's still probably around some large minority of Trump supporters that are staunchly: Trump only. And, frankly, (waves hands) we're gonna need them to over-come 5-10 points of voter fraud.
They're not strategically wise at all, but it's not exactly a cult.
I think the better term is "Trump Loyalist". There are some people to whom, Trump was such a boon, they wouldn't go for anyone else, and see them as their representative/leader. I don't even think most Trump supporters are that, but there's a fair few who are. These are people who stopped voting maybe 20 years ago, or even never voted because they were so disenfranchized, they just didn't think it was worth it. And Trump, personally, changed that mentality in them. It's going to be a struggle to keep them without a Trump endorsement, and even then, I don't think a Trump endorsement is as powerful as Trump himself.
For the majority of of the America First populists (of which I see myself as one kind), I don't trust DeSantis because he's surrounding himself and making himself fiscally dependent on worse people than Trump did. There really is a big Mitt Romney feel to his campaign, and I don't think they are doing well.
I think he's actually genuine at resisting wokeness, but I feel like he's actually making himself friends in all the wrong places. To me, the Kanye-Trump blip is stupid as hell, but not dangerous. DeSantis's donors and book deals make me fucking nervous. There is no limit to what the establishment will do to purge the MAGA movement, and destroying both Trump and DeSantis is a major win.
I find this prediction hard to agree with, unless you think "core Trump supporters" are personality cultists.
I'm hoping for the impossible: The DP nominating RFK Jr.
They're not cultists, they were diseffected normies that came out of the wood-work for Trump specifically. You're looking at people in their 40's, 50's, and 60's who never voted until they voted Trump.
As for RFK Jr., He won't be nominated, but I feel like if they treat him badly enough, there will be so many disaffected Leftists that they won't be able to count on a small portion of progressive votes turning out. 2020 got every Leftist voter to vote for Joe Biden. All of them. In 2024, so long as RFK doesn't cuck out like Bernie Sanders did, some chunk of those votes, maybe a million, might not show up.
Some are. And Trump is a loose cannon who will probably denounce DeSantis rather than backing him.
The establishment is openly backing Tim Scott not Ron DeSantis. Thune and McConnell are for Tim Scott.
I am certain this primary will be your scenario 1.
Either Trump or DeSantis will win the nomination on their work alone.
Regardless of which of the two wins, we must all get behind the eventual GOP nominee to end Biden's dreams of an re-election.
I hope you're right but we need to monitor the establishment actions as closely as possible, including those that CLAIM to be on the Trump or Desantis teams.
The greatest enemies are those from within than outside
The McConnell establishment is stuck in the past.
They foolishly believe they can get a return to the old business Reaganism by backing a candidate like Tim Scott or Nikki Haley.
The establishment personally despises Trump for his abrasive personality but they are not getting behind DeSantis because they don't like that DeSantis is truly a conservative with populist leanings.
DeSantis is too right wing populist for the establishment and Trump is too offensive for them from a personality standpoint.
The establishment will be irrelevant in this primary.
They will push Tim and to a lesser degree Nikki until both fail in their home state of SC and the establishment will seethe.