At the risk of jumping to conclusions, I'm leaning towards psyop:

1. It's getting reported.
2. Some of these video/photos are getting framed essentially the same way as Jan 6, as if the mainstream news sorted their pictures by number of clicks and someone's trying to imitate.
3. Where are the guns? Oh, wait, I forgot, you can conquer a nation with zip ties.
4. Unlike the US, the military in Brazil actually have national pride and care about their country. If this is a real deal insurrection, there would be no need for the people to take to the buildings because the military can secure the places of power that have any value.
5. Lula didn't actually win the votes, so he doesn't have the support. He needs to give himself the permission to hunt and ruin the lives of his political enemies who currently outnumber him.

Seeing the response of #4 by the military will settle it, though. Just because the CIA might have staged it as a psyop doesn't mean it has to finish as a psyop.

Edit: PDW currently has a "shaman" stickied. That satisfies the "how it started" for my mind. Hoping for the good end, though.