Probably both. The Russians also do not really have the capability to conduct a war with a country it does not share a border with at the moment, so not only would a strike on the west with an icbm be a guarantee of a return strike, but their navy isn’t cable to project force to ensure a successful troop landing if they even have the ships to do one at all. I think they have one aircraft carrier, and from what I’ve read online it’s frequently needing repairs that are greater than your regular maintenance.