In that case Kaliningrad gets the Leningrad treatment and it's Poland anyway.

I wonder would the Baltic Fleet get out and fight. I think the last time they actually did was in 1905 and they're still traumatised by that.

The Baltic Sailors also have a history of mutiny when told to do fight, and when they do they can't defeat even Finland. Their greatest sea victories were by submarines sinking passenger and hospital ships with refugees and wounded soldiers in 1945.