Whoever tells you that he knows the answer to that, will be deceiving you.
Le Pen has the downside of her toxic name. But she has been working on moderating and making herself more acceptable. On the other hand, Zemmour is more right-wing on cultural issues (which is a disadvantage when appealing to the median voter, though the median French voter is pretty damn right-wing on these issues), but he has the advantage of being an intellectual and his identity, which protects him from accusations of anti-Semitism even as he says that the French are being replaced.
I think even if Zemmour loses in the first round, it will be very good, because he expands the Overton Window and makes Le Pen look more moderate. Basically the reverse of what is going on in the US, where the left gets crazier every month, so the ultra-crazy stuff from 10 years ago looks positively conservative.
Whoever tells you that he knows the answer to that, will be deceiving you.
Le Pen has the downside of her toxic name. But she has been working on moderating and making herself more acceptable. On the other hand, Zemmour is more right-wing on cultural issues (which is a disadvantage when appealing to the median voter, though the median French voter is pretty damn right-wing on these issues), but he has the advantage of being an intellectual and his identity, which protects him from accusations of anti-Semitism even as he says that the French are being replaced.
I think even if Zemmour loses in the first round, it will be very good, because he expands the Overton Window and makes Le Pen look more moderate. Basically the reverse of what is going on in the US, where the left gets crazier every month, so the ultra-crazy stuff from 10 years ago looks positively conservative.