So I came across an article, "40% of local Covid-19 cases are in the vaccinated. What does that say about the vaccines?", https://archive.is/Y8dx5. It states 40% of local cases are in the vaccinated but gives the following to support that this doesn't reflect poorly on the vaccine:
The state health department said that Wednesday’s study found “unvaccinated New Yorkers were 11 times more likely to be hospitalized and eight times more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19 than those who were fully vaccinated.”
So, 40% of cases are in the vaccinated and Syracuse has a 60% vaccination rate. Let's do the math P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A)/P(B). The probability of X is written P(X). The probability of X given Y is written P(X|Y). A is 'diagnosed with covid'. B is vaxxed. !B is not vaxxed. We don't know what P(A) is but that's okay, we will set it to x. P(A|B) = .4 * x / .6 and P(A|!B) = .6 * x / .4. The ratio of covid given not vaxxed to covid given vaxxed is P(A|!B)/P(A|B), (.6x/.4)/(.4x/.6) so .36/.16 or 9/4, 2.25. For the eight times statement to agree with with the reality the journalist has observed the vaccination rate would have to be 85% which would be an impossible number even if the vaccine was mandatory.
While I don't expect journalists to know bayes law I would expect them to at least find the numbers unlikely and maybe talk to a statistician instead of just spewing them out uncritically, but that would assume journalist was anything more than PR for the state.
I assume most people formally employed as "journalists" are infotainment professionals employed for little more than their ability to repeat things they have been told at the level a fifth-grader might have been able to understand when we had a pattern of effective education rather than an education "system".
They don't do anything. Journalists are the dumbest people around. Thanks for the numbers though.
If they could they’d have a real job that contributes something useful to the world.
There is a chance that they are talking about 40% local cases being vaccinated being a mixed of one shot / 2 shot. So fully vaccinated would account for only part of the 40%.
As for probability, I seriously doubt a journalist can do that.
I would like to see the study showing that if you get vaccinated reduces the chance of getting the virus or not being bale to transmit it.
It mentioned that 40% was fully vaxed. An additional 2.6% were partially vaccinated, and 4% were unknown, but I used 40% because assuming 46.6% covid cases are from the vaxxed is even worse and only represents a very slim difference, so the actual value would be between the two.
I stand corrected.
Statistics is racist. You must only get your conclusions from an approved statistician