What a goddamn waste of time, blood and treasure. Absolutely and completely pointless in the end. I knew a guy in high school who went to Afghanistan and had his legs blown off above the knee. I wonder how he feels about this bullshit.
Everyone I knew that spent time over there including myself are livid. But I knew lost that war the second we went into Iraq as that was the moment the people played both sides knowing that they didn’t have out full attention. By 2011 it was clear the local were never going to step up. Because at that point “you all are here why do we need to?”.
Even ignoring the question of "was there ever a war worth fighting there", assuming the maps and news stories are accurate, there is not a war worth fighting. Of the 5 largest cities in Afghanistan,
Kabul is still under governmental control but is almost entirely surrounded by Taliban-controlled territory
Kandahar is about 90% overrun by the Taliban (maybe 100% by now, last I checked only the airport and a few govt buildings were in governmental hands)
Herat is under complete Taliban control
Mazar-i-Sharif is still holding on, but is under active attack by the Taliban as I type this
And Kunduz is under complete Taliban control
This story shows a breakdown of what the territories have looked like over the last few months. Short of a massive military invention from other countries, the Afghan government is done. Most analysts have been giving Kabul a month or two until it's conquered, and at the rate things have been going I personally think that's optimistic. Unless someone wants to send in a massive military force to occupy the whole country, there's nothing that can be done. And, given that the US spent 20 years propping up a provisional government that collapsed in a couple months - and to a group that was "defeated" by the US forces no less - there's only two options.
Get the heck out while you can or
Be prepared to spend decades if not centuries trying to grind the country into submission.
Given that the Persians, Greeks, Mongols, Turks, British, Soviets and now Americans have all failed in subduing Afghanistan, option 1 is the only realistic one. The US going back in again is just lunacy.
No clue, but I don't see any realistic way the Taliban would become a conquering force in most directions.
I guess it's possible they could try to go north to take over some of the old Soviet satellite states, but I don't know enough about their motivations to say why they might want to. And no idea what Putin would say if they tried that either.
Going south (or southeast) you get Pakistan. Not only are the Pakistani and Taliban some level of friends (making war less likely), but the Taliban trying to invade a nuclear power would be stupid. Close diplomatic and cultural ties are definitely possible though.
Going east, you get China. And from the Uyghurs we know how the Chinese react to Muslims coming in.
And going west, they get Iran. And Iran and the Taliban are never going to get along (unless in an "enemy of my enemy" sense) because Iran is the largest Shia and the Taliban are Fundamentalist Sunni. But if the Taliban do try to invade Iran I'm just going to break out the popcorn and let 2 rival Fundamentalist Islamic nations who hate our guts beat each other senseless.
We know all the generals, state department, and intelligence agencies were lying about the situations on the ground in order to get Trump to make purposeful blunders. Overstating the stability of the region was a way to prompt troop withdrawls.
As far as the Biden occupation: a destabilized region is fine with them compared to the strategic need to pull troops back for deployment against American citizens next.
What a goddamn waste of time, blood and treasure. Absolutely and completely pointless in the end. I knew a guy in high school who went to Afghanistan and had his legs blown off above the knee. I wonder how he feels about this bullshit.
Everyone I knew that spent time over there including myself are livid. But I knew lost that war the second we went into Iraq as that was the moment the people played both sides knowing that they didn’t have out full attention. By 2011 it was clear the local were never going to step up. Because at that point “you all are here why do we need to?”.
The Taliban have taken over entirely. Most Western countries are sending forces to get their citizens out.
Even ignoring the question of "was there ever a war worth fighting there", assuming the maps and news stories are accurate, there is not a war worth fighting. Of the 5 largest cities in Afghanistan,
Kabul is still under governmental control but is almost entirely surrounded by Taliban-controlled territory
Kandahar is about 90% overrun by the Taliban (maybe 100% by now, last I checked only the airport and a few govt buildings were in governmental hands)
Herat is under complete Taliban control
Mazar-i-Sharif is still holding on, but is under active attack by the Taliban as I type this
And Kunduz is under complete Taliban control
This story shows a breakdown of what the territories have looked like over the last few months. Short of a massive military invention from other countries, the Afghan government is done. Most analysts have been giving Kabul a month or two until it's conquered, and at the rate things have been going I personally think that's optimistic. Unless someone wants to send in a massive military force to occupy the whole country, there's nothing that can be done. And, given that the US spent 20 years propping up a provisional government that collapsed in a couple months - and to a group that was "defeated" by the US forces no less - there's only two options.
Get the heck out while you can or
Be prepared to spend decades if not centuries trying to grind the country into submission.
Given that the Persians, Greeks, Mongols, Turks, British, Soviets and now Americans have all failed in subduing Afghanistan, option 1 is the only realistic one. The US going back in again is just lunacy.
No clue, but I don't see any realistic way the Taliban would become a conquering force in most directions.
I guess it's possible they could try to go north to take over some of the old Soviet satellite states, but I don't know enough about their motivations to say why they might want to. And no idea what Putin would say if they tried that either.
Going south (or southeast) you get Pakistan. Not only are the Pakistani and Taliban some level of friends (making war less likely), but the Taliban trying to invade a nuclear power would be stupid. Close diplomatic and cultural ties are definitely possible though.
Going east, you get China. And from the Uyghurs we know how the Chinese react to Muslims coming in.
And going west, they get Iran. And Iran and the Taliban are never going to get along (unless in an "enemy of my enemy" sense) because Iran is the largest Shia and the Taliban are Fundamentalist Sunni. But if the Taliban do try to invade Iran I'm just going to break out the popcorn and let 2 rival Fundamentalist Islamic nations who hate our guts beat each other senseless.
We know all the generals, state department, and intelligence agencies were lying about the situations on the ground in order to get Trump to make purposeful blunders. Overstating the stability of the region was a way to prompt troop withdrawls.
As far as the Biden occupation: a destabilized region is fine with them compared to the strategic need to pull troops back for deployment against American citizens next.