Just saying, to get 130k dead with a .1% IFR, it would mean ~35% of the US has already had it. I just don't see it. Also, 130k is pretty lowball compared to the overall excess mortality in the recent time frame. I think we'll be lucky to see it settle at .5, with ~.7-1 being more likely. If your right, we should see herd immunity in a couple months, though. So there's that.
NYC had 20% with antibodes early may, which obviously wasn't counting people who had it but didn't have antibodies, which apparently last 6 ish weeks.
So yeah, I can easily see it, in places that got it and didn't over react. In the south and midwest, we'll get there quick if we don't act retarded and lock down over people being irrational.
At the time, NYC had 13k dead, and another estimated 4-5k uncounted COVID deaths. Population is 8.4 million. Estimation of antibodies is 2.1 million + 200k or so confirmed. .56 IFR on the low end, .78 on the high end. And we're being pretty conservative on the numbers here.
It ain't the flu.
The lockdowns were an overreaction. Recommendations for masks aren't.
e: based this on 25% antibodies accidentally. Should be 1.88 million infected, with .69 IFR on low, and .95 on the high end.
Because cuomo et al killed 50k people, but sure.
It won't be worse than the flu, in the end. This just spreads more. That's why we use the IFR.
Just saying, to get 130k dead with a .1% IFR, it would mean ~35% of the US has already had it. I just don't see it. Also, 130k is pretty lowball compared to the overall excess mortality in the recent time frame. I think we'll be lucky to see it settle at .5, with ~.7-1 being more likely. If your right, we should see herd immunity in a couple months, though. So there's that.
NYC had 20% with antibodes early may, which obviously wasn't counting people who had it but didn't have antibodies, which apparently last 6 ish weeks.
So yeah, I can easily see it, in places that got it and didn't over react. In the south and midwest, we'll get there quick if we don't act retarded and lock down over people being irrational.
At the time, NYC had 13k dead, and another estimated 4-5k uncounted COVID deaths. Population is 8.4 million. Estimation of antibodies is 2.1 million + 200k or so confirmed. .56 IFR on the low end, .78 on the high end. And we're being pretty conservative on the numbers here.
It ain't the flu.
The lockdowns were an overreaction. Recommendations for masks aren't.
e: based this on 25% antibodies accidentally. Should be 1.88 million infected, with .69 IFR on low, and .95 on the high end.
Except antibody tests don't pick up on people who don't have them anymore, but are still immune, so you're looking at some higher number still.
Also, nursing home deaths artificially inflated it because of Cuomo.