doesn't have to be an offensive. Every war since the industrial revolution has been lost by the nation who fired the first shot, attrition is key to a successful war. Russia will absolutely survive the war. Putin, on the other hand, I am not so certain.

Russia lost a ton of equipment, a ton of men, and a ton of money from either said lost equipment, sanctions on oil and gas, or United Russia continuing to embezzle taxpayer money. A stop to the war is a stop to wartime investment, which will be a shock to the economy.