People are getting tricked over what I like to call the "Double Derivative Tactic"
In physics:
There is a position function with respect to time
The change of position over time is velocity (1st Derivative of Position)
The change of velocity over time is acceleration (2nd Derivative of Position)
This means that acceleration is the change, of the change, of position over time.
The 2.3%, as you say, is month to month. But it's not a raw number. It's a change. But it's a change of a change with respect to time.
So for example. Let us assume this is the price of widget:
January: 1.00
February: 1.10
March: 1.25
The 1st Derivative, is the total change previous month:
February 10% increase
March: 13.6% increase
So, quick, what did the rate of the inflation by?!!
3.6%.
Sure, but what did I just ask you?
The definition of inflation is the increase in the money supply, not price increases. However, the vernacular definition of inflation is rate of price increases, which is what the government is hoping to trap you on. The vernacular definition of inflation is the: change in prices.
So, I asked you: what was the change in the change of price? I asked you a double derivative.
So, did prices go up by 3.6% from February to March? No, absolutely not. The change in the change in price increased by 3.6%.
So, prices went up in February to March... by 13.6%. Not 3.6%
And if we were to actually measure prices, the rate of change in prices from January to March is 25%, not 13.6, nor 3.6
So, that's what you have to keep in mind. If someone says, "Inflation went up by 3.6%", it means that prices increased by 13.6% from last month, or 25% from 2 months ago.
This is why I argue for deflation.
This is what most economists would call an economic collapse:
March: 1.25
April: 1.30
May: 1.31
1st Derivative:
4% increase
0.7% increase
2nd Derivative:
-3.3%
Actual Price increase
From March : +0.06
From January : +0.31
Hysterical response: "WE HAD 3.3% DEFLATION, THE MARKET IS DYING! IT'S A DEPRESSION!"
That is what it would look like if prices stabilized
This is what most economists would call "The greatest depression in human history"
February: 1.10
March: 1.25
April: 1.15
May: 1.00
1st Derivative:
13.6% increase
-8% increase
-13% increase
2nd Derivative:
(- 21%)
(- 5%)
Actual Price increase:
From March: -0.25
From January: 0.00
Hysterical response: "EVERYONE IS FUCKING DEAD JIM. THE WORLD CURRENCY IS NOW PROLAPSED BLEEDING ASSHOLES"
That is also what it would look like if prices went back to normal. The Keynsian Monetary system is a monetary system addicted to cocaine and high on bath salts.
People are getting tricked over what I like to call the "Double Derivative Tactic"
In physics:
This means that acceleration is the change, of the change, of position over time.
The 2.3%, as you say, is month to month. But it's not a raw number. It's a change. But it's a change of a change with respect to time.
So for example. Let us assume this is the price of widget:
The 1st Derivative, is the total change previous month:
So, quick, what did the rate of the inflation by?!!
3.6%.
Sure, but what did I just ask you?
The definition of inflation is the increase in the money supply, not price increases. However, the vernacular definition of inflation is rate of price increases, which is what the government is hoping to trap you on. The vernacular definition of inflation is the: change in prices.
So, I asked you: what was the change in the change of price? I asked you a double derivative.
So, did prices go up by 3.6% from February to March? No, absolutely not. The change in the change in price increased by 3.6%.
So, prices went up in February to March... by 13.6%. Not 3.6%
And if we were to actually measure prices, the rate of change in prices from January to March is 25%, not 13.6, nor 3.6
So, that's what you have to keep in mind. If someone says, "Inflation went up by 3.6%", it means that prices increased by 13.6% from last month, or 25% from 2 months ago.
This is why I argue for deflation.
This is what most economists would call an economic collapse:
1st Derivative:
2nd Derivative:
Actual Price increase
Hysterical response: "WE HAD 3.3% DEFLATION, THE MARKET IS DYING! IT'S A DEPRESSION!"
That is what it would look like if prices stabilized
This is what most economists would call "The greatest depression in human history"
1st Derivative:
2nd Derivative:
Actual Price increase:
Hysterical response: "EVERYONE IS FUCKING DEAD JIM. THE WORLD CURRENCY IS NOW PROLAPSED BLEEDING ASSHOLES"
That is also what it would look like if prices went back to normal. The Keynsian Monetary system is a monetary system addicted to cocaine and high on bath salts.
I thought it was compared year over year by month, ie: inflation in march 2023 (2024?) compared to march 2025?
It depends. Some places will do month by month to confuse it further.
Year over year by month is the traditional method in the US. The same Double Derivative issue is at play.
ah, you were simplifying for the sake of avoiding confusion.