On paper it should be an easy Trump win, but I suspect shenanigans.
This is the perfect place to ask people who are informed. Which agenda will take the win in November and why do you think they will?
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I think it is close, but I'd consider Trump the narrow favorite (I thought he would lose in 2016 and 2020).
Pro:
The polls show it to be close, and Trump has outperformed polls. The assassination attempt should drive turnout.
Con:
Concerns are the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, and the fact that Trump does not have a good ground game. And perhaps pollsters have adjusted their polls to account for an overperforming Trump. There are also some noises about not enough men voting in PA (yet, but there is still time), and tanking betting markets (though still better than 4 and 8 years ago).
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Betting odds tanking?
My biggest fear is that that pollsters have overcompensated with the "hard to reach Trump voter" and that polling results will be more like 2022 than 2016 or 2020.
2020 is almost impossible to compare to due to Covid shenanigans.
I'm not convinced betting markets mean much. I'm not much of a degen gambler, but I've been tempted to put some $ on Harris as an emotional hedge.
Good to see, but they are worse here: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
And there was also another site where they tanked even worse than here.
Betting markets did better last times around. While pundits were saying that Trump had no chance, they gave him a better chance - though obviously, they were very wrong in 2016 all the same.
A lot of republicans vote exactly on Election Day. Because most of us consider it a national holiday and love exercising our fundamental god-given rights out of love for this country