On paper it should be an easy Trump win, but I suspect shenanigans.
This is the perfect place to ask people who are informed. Which agenda will take the win in November and why do you think they will?
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I honestly think Trump will win but the shenanigans will focus on limiting the control Republicans have in the House and Senate.
It just seems like Kamala has largely been abandoned by the main actors, they knew how badly she did in 2020, gave her a chance when Biden was forced out but she was still so bad they've seemingly gone 'fuck it' and trying to retain power elsewhere.
When he gets in, first day expect a LOT of pardons from Jan 6 to former Trump colleagues to that guy that made Silk Road. Then expect him to purge as hard as possible as revenge as I think he'd rather purge the system with as much power as he can use so that when he's done in 2028 they can go after him again. The fact that it also would help the country is a happy coincidence.
I think our real problem is the House and Senate. ONCE AGAIN, the Republican establishment is desperate to lose the election. They are plan B: lose the house and senate enough to impeach and remove Trump and Vance once they get elected. Possibly for vote rigging, or for deploying police against Antifa rioters in DC.
However, if Trump's coat tails are long enough, they might get screwed out of that too. House and Senate republicans are down, and MAGA candidates are badly underfunded. Kari Lake is struggling to hold on in Arizona, and if we blow them out of the water, we might get some in, but we're gonna need a blow-out to basically keep the presidency.
I think that's what Trump is actually doing in New York and New Jersey: securing Republican down-ballot races.
They're not going to lose the Senate. Too many of the Senate races this year are too favorable to the GOP. Without rigging, they could end up with as many as 57 Senate seats, which would be unprecedented. In reality, Lake will probably be cheated our of hers, and a couple of others will be fortified as well, but they can't throw the election badly enough to lose in West Virginia, for example, or even in Texas or Florida.
I'll grant you that.
WV is probably gonna end up +40 Trump. I'm not kidding.
For President, yes, but my point was that the Senate seat will be a flip. No Democrat who isn't Joe Manchin will be able to hold that seat. That alone, along with wins in all of the safe Republican states, is enough to win them the Senate. Then there are red-leaning races in PA, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Montana etc. As I said, some of those will go blue, probably due to fortifying, but rigging all of them enough to win them all is probably impossible, even with both party establishments working together. A couple of those will be Republican pickups as well.
A Montanan was telling me the other day that some recent local polling had just come out showing that Tester and Sheehy were now tied, after the Sheehy stolen valor / accidental shooting in a national park, whatever it is thing. Who knows.
I would bet on Montana and WV as flips.
I think Kari Lake probably loses again in AZ.
I'm surprised there hasn't been more focus on flipping the dem in OH.
Wisconsin I think stays dem, but depends on Trump coattails.
Ohio is trending more and more red, so I think the Trump Bump could easily be enough to knock Brown out. I'd say there was a better chance in Michigan than Wisconsin, with Stebanow retiring, but Witchmer is still governor so there are some major shenanigans going on there.