this is going to be one of those
source: trust me bro
posts, but I have no way of communicating this without doxing myself and I must vent.
I just got off the phone from a pollster. I decided to take the survey, and oh boy was it biased. the questions themselves were surprisingly neutral, but every short-answer question was pulling teeth.
I had the survey taker read back every answer that I gave, and she blatantly changed my answers multiple times in favor of the DNC. I have no proof she even respected what I actually told her. I suspect that she did not respect my answers in the slightest in fact.
there was also a heavy emphasis on abortion in the questionnaire.
polls are fake and gay
Rich Barris (People's Pundit) has brought this up several times. Several of the campaigns are constructing push polls using these very mechanisms.
Honestly, let them. In fact, feed their ego and lie even harder.
They want a push poll, you feed them explicitly false information that they think might be plausible.
"Environmental Policy is the single most important issue for me. If Kamala doesn't pass a Fracking Ban, I'm staying home. We have 12 years before Climate Change is irreversible. Yes, everyone in my friend group thinks like this. Yes, that includes the Republicans. Yes, I'm a registered Republican. People don't care about coal, no one uses it, and it's not part of a modern society. We want renewable energy more than anything else. Our future depends on it, and we will unite against Trump's 2025 agenda to ban renewable energy."
Yes, it's feeding their ego, but if their political masters are actually swallowing this bullshit, it means that the information they are operating off of is going to be dramatically wrong, to the point that they'll make critical campaign mistakes. If the polls start saying that Trump and Harris are in a dead heat in Ohio because of Climate Change, they're going to have a very hard time explaining why they lost Ohio by 16 points to Trump.
Put 'em out of fucking business.
That very attitude is why I am putting longshot odds on Trump being able to flip Virginia, as well as there starting to be rumblings he may go Winner-Take-All in Nebraska for the first time in a while (only 1 extra EC vote, but every little bit helps). If even the most generous polls are showing them running a whole lot closer than they should be in Virginia, then he is probably running even better than that considering his tradition of the polls heavily undersampling Trump voters. And when you combine that with the fact that Youngkin actually did a fair amount to move the needle in Virginia on voting things, and the local Republican party getting fairly innovative with some of their ways they handle elections (like holding back many suburban and rural counties from reporting until urban counties do), I think a red Virginia is a possibility.
Barnes and Barris agree with you on Nebraska. Virginia is going to be tough because of the area around DC is going to be rabid Harris supporters, because the bureaucrats might directly start losing jobs. Trump has a hell of a mechanism to pull out no history voters to vote for him. Literally people who've never voted in their lives, except for Trump, and as a result even good polls understate Trump support by several points (typically 2 full points). It's a tough fight, but I think a Red Virginia is definitely possible.
I think shockers might be in store for Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, and New Jersey. I don't think he's going to win all those states, but I think he could end up winning Arizona (which is still a feat due to voter fraud) as well as one or two of the others. His approval among Hispanics looks like it's putting New Mexico in danger. Oregon has a rabid right-wing movement at this point that will keep it closer than it should be. At the beginning of this month, Harris was only up by five points in Oregon. His performance in NY & NJ is alarming, but won't be enough to overcome NY... That being said he might end the night within 10 points in NJ. Michigan would be a huge win, but a tough win.
Where I think there is not a risk: Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Texas. Those are basically just gonna get dominated by Trump. All of them.
Also, I'd say keep an eye on Maine & New Hampshire, those both might end up going Republican. If they report in early with a Trump win, it's gonna be a bad night for the Dems.
I expect more shenanigans with Georgia votes. The people who screwed that up before didn't go anywhere, and they're claiming some immunity from the state government telling them to do their jobs right.
I do to, but some anti-fortification methods have been added, and more importantly: Trump has a very large lead.
I don't think most fraud operations in America can swing votes by more than 7%, and I don't think Georgia is at that level, and Trump's lead in Georgia seems quite substantial.