Next week we have upcoming gubernatorial elections in MS and KY.
My predictions:
MS Gov: Tate Reeves (R) wins again by 5-9 points. MS is a solid red state with high racial polarization where Whites generally vote for Republicans and Blacks vote Dem, thus even though Reeves has some scandals, he still wins by a decent margin.
KY Gov: Andrew Beshear (D) sadly wins again by 1-5 points. Kentucky is a solid red state so you would first think Republican Daniel Cameron wins easily but it is not so simple. Beshear has managed high approval ratings as the Kentucky legislature has a Republican supermajority which serves as a big check against him. Also it is pretty obvious that Daniel Cameron being Black will somewhat hurt him in some White rural areas. I really hope I am wrong about this prediction.
We also have legislative races in VA and NJ
NJ: I think it is pretty obvious that Democrats ultimately remain in solid control of both houses of the legislature.
VA: Youngkin has been working hard to get a trifecta in VA. Republicans have control of the House currently and they are trying to flip the Senate.
I think the House is a tossup as the Republicans have fielded some decent candidates with good optics so they have a decent shot even in a fairly blue state like VA. 50 seats R 50 seats D
I think the Senate is harder. Winning the VA senate requires winning two seats that Biden won by double digit margins so I sadly think Dems will keep the VA senate by like 2 seats. 22 seats for the Dems to 18 seats for Republicans
There are also downballot races in Lousiana for SOS, AG and other row offices which I think will all be easily won by Republicans.
There is a State Supreme Court election in PA. I think PA is just beyond fucked in terms of the state GOP generally being inept clowns and letting shady fraud shit happen. I sadly expect the Democrats to "win" this race.
There is also an abortion ballot referendum in Ohio as well. Abortion referendums have just been going terrible for the GOP so I am assuming this will sadly also be a result in favor of abortion.
There is also a high profile local mayoral election in Houston, Texas as well. Likely there will be a runoff but the end result is that "moderate" Democrat John Whitmire beats psychotic Hillary endorsed Dem Sheila Jackson Lee.
There are some smaller elections I missed here but these are my predictions for this year's big elections.
Feel free to share your own predictions and let me know if my predictions are reasonable or just delusional or whatever.
If you live in any of these areas, go out and vote even if you think the elections are pointless or rigged. It is easy to vote so let's make it as hard as possible for the Democrats to get away with shady shit.
Don't wanna lose hope in Ohio yet. Issue 1 last time only lost by a few points, and this should be closer. I personally know multiple people who voted against issue 1 last time who won't be voting yes this time. Really it will just come down to turnout, which for a constitutional amendment is pathetic and sad (which is why issue 1 back in August was necessary, but I digress).
Edit: also many churches have signs all over their property. Last time, most churches stayed out of it because it was a civics question and they didn't want to throw their weight behind opposing anything that didn't directly go against their beliefs. This time one can't twist this into anything other than a blank check for unlimited abortion. Should be close next week.
I truly hope you are right.
Just to add some more context to my prediction above.
In 2020, Trump won Ohio by only 8 points but he won Kansas and Montana by like 15 points and he won Kentucky by like 26 points yet abortion bans failed in Kansas, Kentucky and Montana.
I am really blackpilled after seeing abortion bans die in these solid red states.
Ohio is generally way less Republican leaning than Kansas, Kentucky and Montana so it would odd for abortion bans to be more popular in Ohio of all places.
I hope pro life side wins next week.
Edit: Didn't issue 1 in Ohio during this August lose by double digits?
https://archive.ph/bdz4B
Yeah I'm not sure how the public awareness was on those Kansas and Montana issues. From the outside it kind of seemed like a blitzkrieg where they just overwhelmed by putting it to ballot relatively quickly with confusing wording.
Regarding the August issue, I remembered 10 points but I guess it was like 15. The point is though that means you only have to sway like 7.5% which I think is very doable.
The issue will almost certainly come down to turnout though, so I suppose that kind of reasoning is useless. The leftists had a huge advantage in turnout last time because they tapped into a subsection of normies that don't usually vote; I had coworkers who I know never vote ranting to me about how "they" were "trying to steal our democracy."
Gonna be difficult but I wouldn't throw in the towel yet. Just speaking from a signage perspective, it is much closer this time, whereas last time NO signs were a supermajority in my area (that usually votes close to 50-50 in national elections).
Glad to hear that about the pro life signs.
I would love to see pro-lifers win in Ohio and give me a white pill for once.
The last little whitepill I had was when the Supreme Court shut down Biden's unconstitutional OSHA vaccine mandate in January of 2022
So is this just a religious based position? Because none of the pro-life people I talk to ever have a realistic solution to the excess black births problem. Bottom line is that irresponsible ghetto blacks use abortion as their primary form of birth control. Are you in favor of just letting them reproduce unchecked? If so, what's your solution to the millions of additional ghetto blacks who will be born over the coming years?
Thanks. I can’t believe KY would vote blue. Is he a hardcore lefty democrat? I hope Cameron can get it. I forgot I need to vote in the local Tarrant election.
Any abortion issues on the ballot? Also, how did PA get to circumvent voting laws in 2020 with a Republican majority?
Cameron is a pretty good candidate for Kentucky. Sucks that he is running against the incumbent popular son of another popular governor.
Beshear pretends to be moderate but he is pretty far left.
There aren't any abortion referendums in Texas this time around.
PA GOP sucks and they voted for a bill in 2018 that allowed for mail in ballots with some signature matching. Democrat governor of PA and the State Supreme Court just blocked the signature matching aspect and played the GOP hard there.
The vote in Tarrant is over property taxes right?
Yeah the propositions this time around are generally about property taxes.
Edit: here is what each proposition is about:
https://archive.ph/yox42
Thanks. My parents voted last week and they reminded me.
In VA there's a ton of lesser offices and the state voting site only has a giant excel spreadsheet to tell you what's on your ballot. Many offices won't show party affiliation.
Like for school board at large there's I think 9 candidates and you can vote for three. Some of them are trans grooming promoters.
These offices won't get many votes, or people will choose randomly, so your vote counts extra. So do you research if you're in VA or spread the word if you know somebody who is!