[Essay] The Last Days Of The Not My Problem Bros?
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To be clear, I meant successfully. They might try - especially China - but none of those have as much chance of succeeding, or as good of a current track record, as our own governments. That's what I meant; practically, not just motivation.
Nor do said foreign powers have a lot to gain by doing so. North Korea's probably the only one that I legitimately think would press the button without any thought or hesitation, simply because of what a deranged and warped shit hole it is.
Iran has justified reasons to hate the West (especially the US), but mostly just wants the US to back the fuck off. Same with Russia. China on the other hand is just trying to milk us dry, so they'd only be hurting themselves by trying to kill us off.
I think even North Korea is massively exaggerated as a threat. They are indeed a deranged shithole, but they still realize they're just going to fuck themselves if they push the button. Honestly, the bigger and more stable countries are probably more likely to press the button, and they're not going to do it either. Hopefully, at least. Nothing is impossible, but I don't see any of them doing it, much less NK.
I'll certainly agree that North Korea's practical and capable threat level is very much exaggerated. But I do think their leadership could be deranged enough to do it if they could.
Russia, admittedly, would probably stand to lose the least by pressing the button. At least assuming they received minimal retaliatory response.
That's not to say that I think their leadership has a lot of interest in such action. Mostly just pointing out that their nation could probably manage just fine without US or Western trade compared to most major powers.
Counting them out would be foolish, at least in terms of threat assessment. They are the premier manufacturer of artillery shells on the planet, in numbers ten or twenty times our own.
If I had to put money on it, I'd say USA or Russia launch the nukes before North Korea does. Or some false flag orchestrated by some other power. North Korea is actually pretty low on the nuclear powers list, at least as far as I'm concerned. They only lead the countries that don't have nukes, or the countries way too cucked to use them. Other than that...