Honestly, there was enough actionable intelligence to respond to it, and there was enough time as well. We know the Navy, ONI, State Department, and FDR were well aware that a Carrier Strike Fleet had departed Japan and had been gone for so long that they had not appeared anywhere else in a timely manner, indicating they were headed for Wake Island, Hawaii, or Midway. No other targets take that long to get to, and there was no evidence it was a drill.
The State Department does admit to being all but fucking utterly smitten with the Japanese delegation who were making fake negotiations and peace deals up until Dec. 7th, so there's a possibility that the State Department didn't think there was a likely chance of attack... but that shows extreme negligence regarding the fact that a Carrier Fleet is on the move and hidden.
FDR absolutely tried multiple actions to provoke the IJN into a war, because geopolitically it seemed like it was a guarantee that Japan would have to stop immediately, or win immediately; and they didn't have the resources to just stop where they were without invading Australia.
Moving the entire fleet to Pearl Harbor was stupid, but there was a lot of intel that suggested the Navy would have spotted an attack far sooner than they could get to Pearl, and Pearl is one of the closest positions to the US that could have been attacked. Strategic analysis indicated Midway and Wake island were more likely... but that's not where the US Fleet was.
Putting the Pacific Fleet in one spot was only useful for rapid deployment, in the event of an attack, but everyone being in one spot is wildly dumb. You'd better have good surveillance... which the Navy didn't. They didn't send anywhere near enough scout planes to protect themselves. it was a mere fluke that the Carriers weren't docked, the Japanese intended to bomb them, but their luck wasn't high enough that day.
This tells us that the Roosevelt administration should have seen the attack coming, but they chose to ignore it. However, their stupidity is so devastating it could have destroyed them. If Japan had hit the ships they were targeting, hit the dry docks, hit the oil tankers, and hit the carriers; the USN would have been out of commission for over a year. And there was a moment in the Pacific where the US had one and only one functional carrier, so the odds were very close.
Japan played the State Department, but they failed to capitalize on an inconceivable opportunity.
I’m genuinely curious as to why Pearl Harbor was able to happen.
Honestly, there was enough actionable intelligence to respond to it, and there was enough time as well. We know the Navy, ONI, State Department, and FDR were well aware that a Carrier Strike Fleet had departed Japan and had been gone for so long that they had not appeared anywhere else in a timely manner, indicating they were headed for Wake Island, Hawaii, or Midway. No other targets take that long to get to, and there was no evidence it was a drill.
The State Department does admit to being all but fucking utterly smitten with the Japanese delegation who were making fake negotiations and peace deals up until Dec. 7th, so there's a possibility that the State Department didn't think there was a likely chance of attack... but that shows extreme negligence regarding the fact that a Carrier Fleet is on the move and hidden.
FDR absolutely tried multiple actions to provoke the IJN into a war, because geopolitically it seemed like it was a guarantee that Japan would have to stop immediately, or win immediately; and they didn't have the resources to just stop where they were without invading Australia.
Moving the entire fleet to Pearl Harbor was stupid, but there was a lot of intel that suggested the Navy would have spotted an attack far sooner than they could get to Pearl, and Pearl is one of the closest positions to the US that could have been attacked. Strategic analysis indicated Midway and Wake island were more likely... but that's not where the US Fleet was.
Putting the Pacific Fleet in one spot was only useful for rapid deployment, in the event of an attack, but everyone being in one spot is wildly dumb. You'd better have good surveillance... which the Navy didn't. They didn't send anywhere near enough scout planes to protect themselves. it was a mere fluke that the Carriers weren't docked, the Japanese intended to bomb them, but their luck wasn't high enough that day.
This tells us that the Roosevelt administration should have seen the attack coming, but they chose to ignore it. However, their stupidity is so devastating it could have destroyed them. If Japan had hit the ships they were targeting, hit the dry docks, hit the oil tankers, and hit the carriers; the USN would have been out of commission for over a year. And there was a moment in the Pacific where the US had one and only one functional carrier, so the odds were very close.
Japan played the State Department, but they failed to capitalize on an inconceivable opportunity.