This could cause insane hyperinflation. A key part of American hegemony is that we print dollars to bribe every country on the planet. This doesn't have any real effects because they all bury the it in a hole in the hope that it will retain it's value better than their own currency.
There are now strong incentives for people with large amounts of Russian trade to start dumping dollars, and once one country does everyone else has to follow suit to avoid getting screwed. This also means people will start calling in US debt. One way around this for the US is to simply delete those digital dollars and not pay any of the debt. There is nothing any country could do about that other than invade to physically take resources as compensation, and good luck with that.
Except, if Europe wants to keep the heat on next winter, guess what they can't do? They can't pay for Russian energy in anything but rubles or gold.
Putin locked in gold at a price below global market value, about $1600/ounce. Why is that important? Because to buy Russian energy you're either going to buy rubles for exchange driving demand thus increasing the value of the ruble or your going to pay more gold for a barrel of Russian crude or NG which essentially increases the value Russian energy. And since some people are going to pay for Russian energy with gold there's going to be two additional effects. 1) Russian energy is going to cost Europe more in gold since Russia considers an ounce to be valued less than international markets giving Russia access to cheap gold. 2) It's going to drive up the price of international gold since demand for it will increase.
Europe can't not buy Russian energy in the mid-term until European countries restructure their energy acquisition, 5 - 10 years.
This could cause insane hyperinflation. A key part of American hegemony is that we print dollars to bribe every country on the planet. This doesn't have any real effects because they all bury the it in a hole in the hope that it will retain it's value better than their own currency.
There are now strong incentives for people with large amounts of Russian trade to start dumping dollars, and once one country does everyone else has to follow suit to avoid getting screwed. This also means people will start calling in US debt. One way around this for the US is to simply delete those digital dollars and not pay any of the debt. There is nothing any country could do about that other than invade to physically take resources as compensation, and good luck with that.
This is good analysis.
One factor I'd like to add, for collective consideration:
Petrodollars maintain value primarily because they are used to buy oil, and the west crushes alternatives.
When Russian Golden Rubles start being used to buy/trade oil, That's when shit will hit the fan-- or we will see an actual WW3.
The ruble isn’t worth the electricity that keeps their computers on right now.
Except, if Europe wants to keep the heat on next winter, guess what they can't do? They can't pay for Russian energy in anything but rubles or gold.
Putin locked in gold at a price below global market value, about $1600/ounce. Why is that important? Because to buy Russian energy you're either going to buy rubles for exchange driving demand thus increasing the value of the ruble or your going to pay more gold for a barrel of Russian crude or NG which essentially increases the value Russian energy. And since some people are going to pay for Russian energy with gold there's going to be two additional effects. 1) Russian energy is going to cost Europe more in gold since Russia considers an ounce to be valued less than international markets giving Russia access to cheap gold. 2) It's going to drive up the price of international gold since demand for it will increase.
Europe can't not buy Russian energy in the mid-term until European countries restructure their energy acquisition, 5 - 10 years.