Possible scenario by 2030?
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Russia has demonstrated it isn't going to allow even a rump Ukraine state to join the EU. The west is going the opposite route by trying to get as many slavs killed as possible, particularly the best and most nationalistic men.
Luckily Russia sent their B-team. They learned from what the allies did to America and world war II.
This is Russia's Winter War. They're figuring out what is wrong with their military to fix the issues.
Too little bodies to throw at other nations?