https://archive.vn/znUil Shylock Holmes‏ @shylockh

Here’s a graph of the histogram. You see an enormously right skewed distribution –tons of large gains for Democrats, very few gains for Republicans. Not only do Democrats very often increase more than Republicans, but when they do, it’s often by a colossal amount. (13/N)

This corresponds to p-values between 10^-73 and 10^-177. The fraction of Democratic “wins” here (520/523), excluding ties, is a ludicrous 99.4%. (22/N)

So how do Republicans compare with Miscellaneous? While they’re not exactly the same, they’re far closer to each other than either is to the Democrats. Other than a few outliers (as Misc. has very few votes in total), the distribution is fairly symmetric around zero. (23/N)

Indeed, the increase in Democrats relative to Republicans is significantly higher when the Democrat is doing worse overall in early counting. Within each ward, late votes break more heavily to Democrat in exactly those races where they are likely to affect the result. (34/N)