The tweeter fucked up his numbers and has it backwards. NBA is almost double NFL per capita.
EDIT: Honestly I think these methods are bunk all round. My own method would be to estimate the number of UNIQUE INDIVIDUALS in each league across 25 years, since it's not like you get a different player in each team slot each year. No reason why each player should get a blank slate for their arrest record every year, right?
Now I don't trust AI, especially since it gives a wildly different estimate each time, but naturally the number it gives is much lower than the aggregate total you get by multiplying team rosters per year (it gives anywhere from 7000-11000 unique individuals for NFL and around 2500-3500 for NBA). Using those arrest numbers from polymarket (as long as they didn't fuck those up as well), then the NBA having a much higher arrest rate than the NFL still holds, but both sports are now at TRIPLE DIGIT numbers of players arrested per 1000 capita. Much more than the average populace (which is already queered by non-white numbers).
The tweeter fucked up his numbers and has it backwards. NBA is almost double NFL per capita.
EDIT: Honestly I think these methods are bunk all round. My own method would be to estimate the number of UNIQUE INDIVIDUALS in each league across 25 years, since it's not like you get a different player in each team slot each year. No reason why each player should get a blank slate for their arrest record every year, right?
Now I don't trust AI, especially since it gives a wildly different estimate each time, but naturally the number it gives is much lower than the aggregate total you get by multiplying team rosters per year (it gives anywhere from 7000-11000 unique individuals for NFL and around 2500-3500 for NBA). Using those arrest numbers from polymarket (as long as they didn't fuck those up as well), then the NBA being almost double the arrest rate of the NFL still holds, but both sports are now at TRIPLE DIGIT numbers of players arrested per 1000 capita. Much more than the average populace (which is already queered by non-white numbers).
The tweeter fucked up his numbers and has it backwards. NBA is almost double NFL per capita.