No shit....in order for overall win probability to increase, clearly the odds of winning certain states must also increase. Where is that probability coming from? Realistically these numbers are what bettors think will happen though so it isn't a good gauge as to whether there's been any genuine change.

Realistically, if there is any "uptick in favorability" that isn't just a mirage, it's likely a function of the fact that even Biden was at a low of all lows after the debate and the assassination attempt. Even he probably would have seen some bounceback if he had stayed in. Couple that with the wall of propaganda and it isn't impossible to imagine some movement. But there's zero chance any remotely competitive state shifted 8 points.

No shit....in order for overall win probability to increase, clearly the odds of winning certain states must also increase. Where is that probability coming from?

Realistically, if there is any "uptick in favorability" that isn't just a mirage, it's likely a function of the fact that even Biden was at a low of all lows after the debate and the assassination attempt. Even he probably would have seen some bounceback if he had stayed in. Couple that with the wall of propaganda and it isn't impossible to imagine some movement. But there's zero chance any remotely competitive state shifted 8 points.