You need to keep in mind that every single Republican in the party that doesn't want Trump 2024 will get behind DeSantis since he is the only viable challenger. This means that yes some unsavory complete scumbags will be getting behind DeSantis. You can't forget that Trump had complete absolute scumbags like John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence and Jerome Adams in his cabinet.

We agree that Trump made bad picks for allies, but most of those were compromises for the GOPe that wants him, possibly literally, dead. I'm counting on Trump holding a fucking grudge and taking a sledgehammer to the neo-Cons. I seriously don't see DeSantis doing that. I see DeSantis being subverted, and unable to clear out the Deep State he will be surrounded by.

As I've said before, my biggest fear is Borris Johnson and what's happened in the UK. Even Kemi Badonoch is a hardliner, and she was fucking burried by her own staff.

Winning an independent voter is worth more as they are essentially gaining two votes, winning an independent voter means -1 Democrat vote and +1 Republican vote. Losing some Trump super fans who won't vote for DeSantis is merely -1 vote as there is no way these people are voting for a Democrat. The political calculus is clear here.

I don't agree with the calculation here, because I don't think the Independent is both a +1/-1 , rather than a -1 , or a -1/+1 to Greens. I also don't think those independents are anywhere near as hostile to Trump as you claim.

Consider the state of Texas, Cruz and Trump were the worst performing candidates in the last 30 years of the state's electoral history.

That's not going to change with DeSantis, as there is continued migration from illegals and the Californication of Austin. I'd say Trump's a better choice in Texas because he can drive up the base that outnumber the independents of Texas substantially and win over anti-Communist hispanics.

Trump would need to win all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to compensate for losing AZ and GA. That is beyond difficult as Michigan has gotten a lot bluer and they have legalized ballot harvesting and Pennsylvania has always been the land of electoral "fortification".

I think that Trump plays well in all of those places. The problem in all of those places is that the Democratic Party is clearly playing smash-mouth with election interference. Yes, I'm good and god damned sure it's not "youth voter turnout", "abortion", and "no one cares about crime" that's helping the Dems. The single greatest determining factor for how you vote is when you vote. Registered Democrats who vote on voting day are more likely to vote Republican than Registered Republicans who vote absentee or mail in. And apparently: no Republican alive has ever voted in Early Voting. ... that... doesn't make sense from an issues basis. That indicates a huge problem with fraud.

DeSantis will have exactly all the same problems, he will be treated as a stand-in for Trump so he will have all the same negatives as Trump, but will not have the charisma or base support. Which means I see him losing most if not all of those states, possibly even Wisconsin because he'll be lacking GOP and Trump-only voter turnout, regardless of fraud. The only one that's up in the air is Arizona, in so much that someone in the AZ GOP has to literally start busing Republican voters into Democratic polling stations just to confuse the shit out of the AG's office in how they are conducting fraud.

And that's where we basically agree. Ballot harvesting, driving around voters, mixing up early and in-person voting (if that's even a viable strategy), all in order to confuse the shit out of the fraud operation. It's not voters that are the problem in those areas. AZ, GA, PA, MI are all going to be lost to the Dems if the Republicans don't counter their fraud strategy, and the GOPe is fully prepared to lose the 2024 election at all available costs to stop populism, including funding DeSantis to beat Trump, and then defunding DeSantis to lose against "literally who". I would expect criminal investigations into DeSantis demanded by the people who are donating to him right now.

You need to keep in mind that every single Republican in the party that doesn't want Trump 2024 will get behind DeSantis since he is the only viable challenger. This means that yes some unsavory complete scumbags will be getting behind DeSantis. You can't forget that Trump had complete absolute scumbags like John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence and Jerome Adams in his cabinet.

We agree that Trump made bad picks for allies, but most of those were compromises for the GOPe that wants him, possibly literally, dead. I'm counting on Trump holding a fucking grudge and taking a sledgehammer to the neo-Cons. I seriously don't see DeSantis doing that. I see DeSantis being subverted, and unable to clear out the Deep State he will be surrounded by.

As I've said before, my biggest fear is Borris Johnson and what's happened in the UK. Even Kemi Badonoch is a hardliner, and she was fucking burried by her own staff.

Winning an independent voter is worth more as they are essentially gaining two votes, winning an independent voter means -1 Democrat vote and +1 Republican vote. Losing some Trump super fans who won't vote for DeSantis is merely -1 vote as there is no way these people are voting for a Democrat. The political calculus is clear here.

I don't agree with the calculation here, because I don't think the Independent is both a +1/-1 , rather than a -1 , or a -1/+1 to Greens. I also don't think those independents are anywhere near as hostile to Trump as you claim.

Consider the state of Texas, Cruz and Trump were the worst performing candidates in the last 30 years of the state's electoral history.

That's not going to change with DeSantis, as there is continued migration from illegals and the Californication of Austin. I'd say Trump's a better choice in Texas because he can drive up the base that outnumber the independents of Texas substantially and win over anti-Communist hispanics.

Trump would need to win all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to compensate for losing AZ and GA. That is beyond difficult as Michigan has gotten a lot bluer and they have legalized ballot harvesting and Pennsylvania has always been the land of electoral "fortification".

I think that Trump plays well in all of those places. The problem in all of those places is that the Democratic Party is clearly playing smash-mouth with election interference. Yes, I'm good and god damned sure it's not "youth voter turnout", "abortion", and "no one cares about crime" that's helping the Dems.

DeSantis will have exactly all the same problems, he will be treated as a stand-in for Trump so he will have all the same negatives as Trump, but will not have the charisma or base support. Which means I see him losing most if not all of those states, possibly even Wisconsin because he'll be lacking GOP and Trump-only voter turnout, regardless of fraud. The only one that's up in the air is Arizona, in so much that someone in the AZ GOP has to literally start busing Republican voters into Democratic polling stations just to confuse the shit out of the AG's office in how they are conducting fraud.

And that's where we basically agree. Ballot harvesting, driving around voters, mixing up early and in-person voting (if that's even a viable strategy), all in order to confuse the shit out of the fraud operation. It's not voters that are the problem in those areas. AZ, GA, PA, MI are all going to be lost to the Dems if the Republicans don't counter their fraud strategy, and the GOPe is fully prepared to lose the 2024 election at all available costs to stop populism, including funding DeSantis to beat Trump, and then defunding DeSantis to lose against "literally who". I would expect criminal investigations into DeSantis demanded by the people who are donating to him right now.