US debt will soon reach 39T. They are adding 200B just for this one phase of the war (Iraq added 1T in a few years only, and money back then was much more valuable). Right now, ALL federal income taxes goes to pay the interest on that debt.

Many people see oil hitting $150, $175, $200. This will increase the cost of everything. Let's not even talk about increased fertilizer cost, helium etc.

This would not be so bad, perhaps, if the economy wasn't running on fumes already. Look at the most recent "job creations." Look at the 0.7% "real" GDP growth. Look at what AI is doing; it looks like it could pop any minute. OpenAI (Chatgpt) is supposed to go public and wants to be valued at 1.5T. Yes, one trillion and a half, and openAI charges $20 a month for its premium plan while the real cost is in the hundreds.

NVDA, ORCL, MSFT, META et al. all depend on AI keeping an insane growth trajectory. This trajectory has been financed - partly - by the money printing. For instance, ChatGPT just announced it made a deal with the Pentagon for military and mass surveillance purpose.

Add in everything else - ICE and its camps (people are on edge), Europe self-destructing through immigration, huge debt loads, salaries stagnating, huge job losses (Oracle, meta, etc) and this feels like it's ready to explode.

Canada just announced massive cuts to its services because the deficit is too high. Services here are already trash so at some point, people will figure out their 46% in taxes doesn't really go anywhere. Let's not even talk of the umitigated disaster of mass immigration; we pay immigrants families $320 a day for instance for housing/food/etc. I don't even have $100 a day to live myself, and yet I have to pay for this.

Add in AI job losses that are coming, low wages, extreme inflation, loss of quality of life and you got the perfect recipe for an economic collapse. I mean it was going to collapse anyway, you can't really print 3-4T a year (the amount they admit to) and expect it to last forever. It's not normal that a house that was $200k a few years ago is now $850k. It's not normal that our dollar store doesn't carry dollar products AT ALL anymore, even chocolate bars are $1.25. It's not normal that unemployment just jumped (in Canada), that as a teacher (with a master), I need another job to survive, etc.

All this to say, I think the Iran BS might expose the whole scam. I think there won't be enough to buy $2500 iPhones and $45,000 entry level cars. With Trump deploying even more troops, the US is most likely stuck in this for years. How high will oil go? 10,000 marines are not going to control anything, and even if they do, for how long?

I think oil will rise and stocks will crash. With stocks falling, a LOT of pension plans, who promised way more than they had, will be in trouble. Social security for instance, but also our canadian plan, assumes they'll get 10-15% returns per year, forever. What if they get a -20% year? What if they get a -15% and a -20% year? What then?

What if young people refuse to contribute to it anymore? They'll start businesses, move, work under the table, or just work less. Prefer to enjoy life than feed the machine. I'm a teacher and I'm literally about to quit and check out of society, what happens when people are happy in houses just growing a garden, raising dogs, and living in small community? Who is going to pay their insane tax for DEI and "muh indigenous reparations"? What if people just say "no thank you, I don't want to pay $30 for a burger and fries. No, I won't pay $75 for a steak, or $50 to get a mcdonalds meal by ubereats"?

To be clear, I don't think this iran thing is going to have a massive impact on the economy of the world, but I think it might be the needle that pushes everything over the edge. People refusing to repay their loans, or just giving up on paying super high taxes (look at New York, for instance). People choosing health, and taking care of themselves, rather than finance a system that obliterates them.

Gas is at $8.00 a gallon in Quebec today. I remember I used to think $3 was too much, do you really think I could or want a car today? At this price?

I think oil will keep going up. Iran is going to keep fighting, destroy more oilfields, and eventually bring oil to $200. And then what? I think people just say outloud: "Trump got us into that. Fuck it, I'm done."

Trump will try to bail his way out by printing more and more money, but eventually, interest rates will go up. And so will inflation. Add in crashing stocks, and people will be left with very few options.

I genuinely believe this is another 2007/2008. I sold all my stocks a few weeks ago. It sucks, because I'll be stuck with a huge tax bill for this year, but I do not want to hold through another crisis; it nearly killed me last time.

Thank you for listening