I keep being surprised that you think all or most of the BSW votes would go to the AfD.
In Thuringia at least, the AfD improved its result while BSW also got double digits.I find this very reasonable. A lot of people style themselves as being 'on the left' while also being reasonable on issues like immigration and culture, same as SW.
Again, people said all the same things you say now (and believe me, I don't begrudge you your pessimism living in Europe and Germany of all places) about the Netherlands, where there were also "spoiler" anti-establishment parties as you would call them. And now they have a new government including Geert Wilders.
At the very least, this is going to scare the living daylights out of the regime. In my judgment, they are less interested in flooding us with immigrants than they are in self-preservation.
Sure, other left-wing parties lost some percentages but their main goal has been achieved: they've prevented an AfD government. It's not like CDU+BSW are going to do things differently than the red-greens, so the losses are minor as long as the left-wing establishment remains intact.
I don't think there's any chance BSW will cooperate with the AfD. That's wishful thinking. They've said they wouldn't. They are from far-left parties. And I don't think they have the fortitude to stand up the the barrage of attacks that the media, Antifa and the state would direct their way.
This may be true in an unconstrained situation. But here you have a situation where the AfD is breathing down their necks. They will have to.
Yea? Remember 2015? And yet here we are, 9 years later and nothing has changed.
Their strategy isn't to confront the AfD based on politics like they always claim. Their strategy is to keep the AfD small with tricks (e.g. spoilers like BSW or giving citizenship to hordes of foreigners, "Geheimtreffen", Verfassungsschutz), cheats (e.g. software errors) and eventually a ban.
Yea? Remember 2015? And yet here we are, 9 years later and nothing has changed.
Things changed from the "center-right" openly being pro-immigration to even Ampel trying to pretend that it is anti-immigration. This doesn't mean they are, any more than the Union is, but it moves the Overton Window and it makes things previously taboo to be normal now.
Their strategy is to keep the AfD small with tricks (e.g. spoilers like BSW or giving citizenship to hordes of foreigners, "Geheimtreffen", Verfassungsschutz), cheats (e.g. software errors) and eventually a ban.
I don't think it will work. I can hardly imagine that they can possibly be that stupid, but given the fact that this is how the American establishment is dealing with Trump, it's not impossible.
The AfD is just a vessel. They don't crush opposition even if they do ban the AfD. They will just be at war with their own population, which is not bad because it will further discredit them.
Not quite the same. I did say that Union+BSW was most likely in my uninformed judgment, but let's see that happen first. I guess it's more likely on the state level because the Union will not have to make the tough choices that would be necessary on the federal level.
I keep being surprised that you think all or most of the BSW votes would go to the AfD.
In Thuringia at least, the AfD improved its result while BSW also got double digits.I find this very reasonable. A lot of people style themselves as being 'on the left' while also being reasonable on issues like immigration and culture, same as SW.
Again, people said all the same things you say now (and believe me, I don't begrudge you your pessimism living in Europe and Germany of all places) about the Netherlands, where there were also "spoiler" anti-establishment parties as you would call them. And now they have a new government including Geert Wilders.
At the very least, this is going to scare the living daylights out of the regime. In my judgment, they are less interested in flooding us with immigrants than they are in self-preservation.
Sure, other left-wing parties lost some percentages but their main goal has been achieved: they've prevented an AfD government. It's not like CDU+BSW are going to do things differently than the red-greens, so the losses are minor as long as the left-wing establishment remains intact.
I don't think there's any chance BSW will cooperate with the AfD. That's wishful thinking. They've said they wouldn't. They are from far-left parties. And I don't think they have the fortitude to stand up the the barrage of attacks that the media, Antifa and the state would direct their way.
Their only goal is self-preservation. They believe in nothing.
This may be true in an unconstrained situation. But here you have a situation where the AfD is breathing down their necks. They will have to.
Politicians say a lot of things. It's so easy for them to evade what they said. The people have spoken. Or, now there is no other way.
This may be true. It seems to be worse in Germany than even other European countries.
Yea? Remember 2015? And yet here we are, 9 years later and nothing has changed.
Their strategy isn't to confront the AfD based on politics like they always claim. Their strategy is to keep the AfD small with tricks (e.g. spoilers like BSW or giving citizenship to hordes of foreigners, "Geheimtreffen", Verfassungsschutz), cheats (e.g. software errors) and eventually a ban.
Things changed from the "center-right" openly being pro-immigration to even Ampel trying to pretend that it is anti-immigration. This doesn't mean they are, any more than the Union is, but it moves the Overton Window and it makes things previously taboo to be normal now.
I don't think it will work. I can hardly imagine that they can possibly be that stupid, but given the fact that this is how the American establishment is dealing with Trump, it's not impossible.
The AfD is just a vessel. They don't crush opposition even if they do ban the AfD. They will just be at war with their own population, which is not bad because it will further discredit them.
Called it: https://jungefreiheit.de/politik/deutschland/2024/bsw-errichtet-brandmauer-gegen-afd/
BSW is nothing but a fraud to secure the establishment's power.
Not quite the same. I did say that Union+BSW was most likely in my uninformed judgment, but let's see that happen first. I guess it's more likely on the state level because the Union will not have to make the tough choices that would be necessary on the federal level.