Definitely not true. Everything remotely believable I've seen shows 0 uptick nationally. At most 1 point. Most swing states unchanged. This is if you even believe polling in the first place. Even if you do, using single polls like that is not advisable.
Sadly it's not about with the people actually believe. it's about creating a plausible scenario where this unlikable cunt can win so they can sell the steal.
This is what I would lean towards as well. The biggest objective at the moment is to position things so that Kumala could plausibly win in the eyes of the public.
Which states would you be alleging she has gained in? Otherwise that doesn't mean much because those swings can be anything from "candidate gains or loses favorability" to "people think they're more likely to attempt and get away with another steal."
No shit....in order for overall win probability to increase, clearly the odds of winning certain states must also increase. Where is that probability coming from? Realistically these numbers are what bettors think will happen though so it isn't a good gauge as to whether there's been any genuine change.
Realistically, if there is any "uptick in favorability" that isn't just a mirage, it's likely a function of the fact that even Biden was at a low of all lows after the debate and the assassination attempt. Even he probably would have seen some bounceback if he had stayed in. Couple that with the wall of propaganda and it isn't impossible to imagine some movement. But there's zero chance any remotely competitive state shifted 8 points.
Definitely not true. Everything remotely believable I've seen shows 0 uptick nationally. At most 1 point. Most swing states unchanged. This is if you even believe polling in the first place. Even if you do, using single polls like that is not advisable.
Sadly it's not about with the people actually believe. it's about creating a plausible scenario where this unlikable cunt can win so they can sell the steal.
This is what I would lean towards as well. The biggest objective at the moment is to position things so that Kumala could plausibly win in the eyes of the public.
prediction markets show Trump has fallen almost 10% over the past week.
Which states would you be alleging she has gained in? Otherwise that doesn't mean much because those swings can be anything from "candidate gains or loses favorability" to "people think they're more likely to attempt and get away with another steal."
Prediction markets for a presidential win
No shit....in order for overall win probability to increase, clearly the odds of winning certain states must also increase. Where is that probability coming from? Realistically these numbers are what bettors think will happen though so it isn't a good gauge as to whether there's been any genuine change.
Realistically, if there is any "uptick in favorability" that isn't just a mirage, it's likely a function of the fact that even Biden was at a low of all lows after the debate and the assassination attempt. Even he probably would have seen some bounceback if he had stayed in. Couple that with the wall of propaganda and it isn't impossible to imagine some movement. But there's zero chance any remotely competitive state shifted 8 points.