I'll admit that I don't know much about how votes tend to go in runoffs, but while I'd agree that ~55% of the primary voters voted for "Not Gonzales", I don't see how that means Herrera picks up the ~30 percentage points worth of those voters who didn't vote for him, especially given the particulars here. Gonzales is (or perhaps was) an establishment Republican politician, whose policies probably put him generally Auth-Center on a political compass. Herrera is a gunmaker and youtuber whose stated political beliefs would probably put him somewhere between Lib-Center and Lib-Right on a political compass. Herrera is also young, foul mouthed, and irreverent, which aren't things that I see the typical Republican primary voter supporting.
Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe I'm a bit blackpilled on "conservatism", but I feel like it's more likely that the things I brought up cost Brandon 20 percent of the "undecided" voters in the runoff (most likely by simply not showing up) than that the "Not Gonzales" voters unify behind him as a bloc.
Gonzales is the incumbent. The incumbent generally gets the votes from people in their party by default.
I'm well aware of this. For example, Governor Greg Abbot got ~70% of the vote in his last primary despite his wildly unpopular handling of covid, a big freeze, and several other issues (like participating in a witch hunt against AG Paxton, probably the most popular statewide elected official in Texas, and endorsing his opponent in the primary.)
If they vote, they will be voting for Herrera.
I think that "If" is a lot bigger than you're apparently making it out to be. I don't think the "Not Gonzales" voters are likely to flip to Gonzales, but that Herrera might be more unpalatable to the runoff voters than Gonzales. I don't know if you've ever watched any of Herrera's "edgier" content, but I expect Gonzales to be featuring lots of that stuff in some particularly vicious attack ads over the coming months.
I guarantee Gonzales is shitting his pants right now, because he knows all of this too.
I hope he is, but I don't see how the runoff is anything but an uphill battle for Herrera.
I'll admit that I don't know much about how votes tend to go in runoffs, but while I'd agree that ~55% of the primary voters voted for "Not Gonzales", I don't see how that means Herrera picks up the ~30 percentage points worth of those voters who didn't vote for him, especially given the particulars here. Gonzales is (or perhaps was) an establishment Republican politician, whose policies probably put him generally Auth-Center on a political compass. Herrera is a gunmaker and youtuber whose stated political beliefs would probably put him somewhere between Lib-Center and Lib-Right on a political compass. Herrera is also young, foul mouthed, and irreverent, which aren't things that I see the typical Republican primary voter supporting.
Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe I'm a bit blackpilled on "conservatism", but I feel like it's more likely that the things I brought up cost Brandon 20 percent of the "undecided" voters in the runoff (most likely by simply not showing up) than that the "Not Gonzales" voters unify behind him as a bloc.
Brandon got more votes than I would have expected. Therefore, I won't count him out having got this far.
I'm well aware of this. For example, Governor Greg Abbot got ~70% of the vote in his last primary despite his wildly unpopular handling of covid, a big freeze, and several other issues (like participating in a witch hunt against AG Paxton, probably the most popular statewide elected official in Texas, and endorsing his opponent in the primary.)
I think that "If" is a lot bigger than you're apparently making it out to be. I don't think the "Not Gonzales" voters are likely to flip to Gonzales, but that Herrera might be more unpalatable to the runoff voters than Gonzales. I don't know if you've ever watched any of Herrera's "edgier" content, but I expect Gonzales to be featuring lots of that stuff in some particularly vicious attack ads over the coming months.
I hope he is, but I don't see how the runoff is anything but an uphill battle for Herrera.