Forming a new government is taking longer and longer each time, with the most notorious example being the Belgian formation of a while back which took more than a year.
They're in a bind, it's a lose-lose if they do not govern with the PVV. New elections mean they will probably lose even more. So the only realistic scenario is one where NSC (good government populists, think RFK), VVD (far-leftists pretending to be center-right, think Mitt Romney) team up with the radical left. If they do that, that government will have to crack down on immigration, and they're sure to be decimated in the next election, if they can even hold out for that long. So I doubt they will choose either course of action - they'll probably govern with PVV and look for an opportunity to backstab.
Seems like it would be more if a win for Wilders if they have new elections, as long as he's not seen as the one responsible. If my math is right, with the current configuration of parliament, he'll need support from the NSC, BBB, FvD, SGP, JA21 and either the CDA or the CU to get a majority vote. Even with some of them just supplying confidence instead of in government, it doesn't seem like a very stable coalition.
Definitely not stable, and besides, there is still the Senate - which has a worse configuration for populists and isn't up for election for 3 years. PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB is the only viable option, and even there the Senate is dubious.
and either the CDA or the CU to get a majority vote.
Never gonna happen, they're bastards of the highest order.
Unfortunately, no matter what happens, the 'center-right' pretenders remain necessary.
The good news is that experience in places like Denmark shows that the 'far-right' can move the center-right and even the center-left to crack down on immigration. It's possible, though I would not say it is likely.
The rush to get as many immigrants in as possible before the nationalists recapture western governments is honestly execution-worthy. These people are burning these countries to the ground on their way out the door. My only hope is that they fail to escape the inevitable conflicts that they themselves created.
Forming a new government is taking longer and longer each time, with the most notorious example being the Belgian formation of a while back which took more than a year.
They're in a bind, it's a lose-lose if they do not govern with the PVV. New elections mean they will probably lose even more. So the only realistic scenario is one where NSC (good government populists, think RFK), VVD (far-leftists pretending to be center-right, think Mitt Romney) team up with the radical left. If they do that, that government will have to crack down on immigration, and they're sure to be decimated in the next election, if they can even hold out for that long. So I doubt they will choose either course of action - they'll probably govern with PVV and look for an opportunity to backstab.
Seems like it would be more if a win for Wilders if they have new elections, as long as he's not seen as the one responsible. If my math is right, with the current configuration of parliament, he'll need support from the NSC, BBB, FvD, SGP, JA21 and either the CDA or the CU to get a majority vote. Even with some of them just supplying confidence instead of in government, it doesn't seem like a very stable coalition.
Definitely not stable, and besides, there is still the Senate - which has a worse configuration for populists and isn't up for election for 3 years. PVV+VVD+NSC+BBB is the only viable option, and even there the Senate is dubious.
Never gonna happen, they're bastards of the highest order.
So he needs the VVD
Unfortunately, no matter what happens, the 'center-right' pretenders remain necessary.
The good news is that experience in places like Denmark shows that the 'far-right' can move the center-right and even the center-left to crack down on immigration. It's possible, though I would not say it is likely.
The rush to get as many immigrants in as possible before the nationalists recapture western governments is honestly execution-worthy. These people are burning these countries to the ground on their way out the door. My only hope is that they fail to escape the inevitable conflicts that they themselves created.