It is not necessary to flip voters from Biden to Trump. It's only necessary to flip them from Biden to didn't-bother-to-vote.
This is a "this guy sucks" election cycle (ironically just like 2020 was), and for that to work all you need is a LOT of really bad news that can be dumped on the president's doorstep.
None of these four things overrides the large portion of people who hate Trump foremost.
You think everyone is a rational voter and that everyone votes based on issues. That is far from reality.
Let's both come back in November and we will see who was more correct about what really happens
And you think voting is zero sum.
It is not necessary to flip voters from Biden to Trump. It's only necessary to flip them from Biden to didn't-bother-to-vote.
This is a "this guy sucks" election cycle (ironically just like 2020 was), and for that to work all you need is a LOT of really bad news that can be dumped on the president's doorstep.