It is not necessary to flip voters from Biden to Trump. It's only necessary to flip them from Biden to didn't-bother-to-vote.
This is a "this guy sucks" election cycle (ironically just like 2020 was), and for that to work all you need is a LOT of really bad news that can be dumped on the president's doorstep.
And you think voting is zero sum.
It is not necessary to flip voters from Biden to Trump. It's only necessary to flip them from Biden to didn't-bother-to-vote.
This is a "this guy sucks" election cycle (ironically just like 2020 was), and for that to work all you need is a LOT of really bad news that can be dumped on the president's doorstep.