If Trump were to be actually convicted on one of these bogus charges before the election, what do you suppose the reaction would be from his hardcore supporters?
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Trump is a wrecking ball and a loose cannon. That can be good, and he's gotten this far because of it, but if you look at historical characters who effected such changes - they were extremely disciplined and methodical. Robespierre was known as the 'incorruptible'. Lenin was ruthless but at the same time forgave party leaders who crossed him and even betrayed him because he needed them.
If you study revolutions, they are often not short-term affairs. The Roman Revolution started in 133 BC and ended traditionally at 29 BC. It was the gradual erosion of the system. The roots of the fall of the ancien regime in France also went back nearly a century, in what historians have called the desacrilization of the monarchy.
Going after Trump is a giant misstep by the regime. Not because they might fail, because I think he will be convicted, probably jailed, and that this will hurt him in the general election. But because it robs them of the lig-leaf of legitimacy that they have and permanently alienates about 1/3 of the US population from the regime. And for what? Preventing Trump from once again accomplishing zilch while being president? I'd say it's to scare others from following him, but the harm inflicted on the regime is far greater than any benefit they get from it.
Assuming for a moment that he is able to do it now or at any time in the future, there is a huge difference there. At that time, they were trying to deprive him of the presidency (at least, insofar as he knew). Now they are trying to deprive him of his liberty and possibly life - because the prison sentences he might get for these bogus charges are death sentences for an old, obese man.
We also don't live in history anymore. When a world was non-globalized and life was filled with far more strife and change instead of the stagnant comfortable living we all have now. Making historical examples far less useful 1:1 comparisons than you are trying to use them.
You can't apply philosophical and thought experiments on only single factors. You need to consider all of them. Including the changes to the world itself. Saigo was able to win by having the superior training and discipline for a while, until the changed factor of guns rendered 700 years of "historical examples" invalid and his entire army was gunned down by men who just a few years prior would be nothing to them.
History has its purpose, but its also filled with more than just "this guy good because X." That's as reductive as when the MRAs said "Rome only fell because women gained power."
Not just any 1/3 of the population, the vast majority of skilled labor is in there.
That really should be how Trump starts a "war," tells his followers to stock up, and set a day to have people stop working indefinitely until demands are met.