The state has demonstrated a reasonable probability of success on its claim

However, he noted that he was “not rendering any final judgments or determinations as to the merits

This is a good example of a statement that's technically true but a motherfucking lie for all intents and purposes. One of the factors a judge weighs when deciding to grant a preliminary injunction is whether the requesting party will prevail on the merits, so when a judge grants one it's a strong signal of which way they're going to ultimately rule. It's usually not a guarantee, but when a judge outs himself as a groomer it eliminates all doubt.