What Is With The Upswing In Flying Saucer Related News? Psyop or real?
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Psyop. There are no aliens.
Well, statistically there almost certainly are aliens.
Aliens that can come and visit you? Probably not.
We have a sample size of one, statistics tell us nothing. How many solar systems and galaxies is meaningless information if we don't have any way to know what the odds are that life is created, the odds that order rose from disorder.
There is no science that has ever shown what the odds are a primordial soup turns non-life into life; perhaps the odds are 0%. It might be like looking for Spiderman in real life: we know there are people bit by spiders every day, but that doesn't mean that one of the people who get bit will get superpowers, because the odds are zero.
We actually do have an equation for calculating the likelihood of alien life elsewhere in the universe. Each variable represents individual aspects of the universe (like how many stars are there). The likelihood of there being a non-earth based life form changes with the rest of the variables. Given the life-time of the universe, as well as the number of planets and moons we have, life elsewhere in the universe is virtually certain. But so common that we could interact with that life? That remains to be seen.
Abiogenesis experiments are done, and it is possible, but it is very difficult. More than anything, it's clear that life is more likely to reproduce and evolve than emerge from non-life. The concept of "life" that we are familiar with already is quite different from the earliest 'living' objects that we know of, since they don't conform to the normal classifications we have for life today.
That being said, the odds being 0%, simply isn't enough to dismiss it given the size and lifetime of the universe. If the odds were 0.000001% that life could emerge from non-life; that would effectively guarantee the emergence of life in the universe at some point. The chances are simply too probable, even at such a "rare" scale.
That equation is a theory, a theory that sounds reasonable, but again one that doesn't have any real data for the most important parameter: emergence of life. It is all nearly random guesswork dressed in a lab coat. Abiogenesis experiments are a pipedream, amino acids are not life.
Life was either supernaturally started, in which case it could be actual 0% (or not), or there isn't a supernatural God or gods kickstarting the process of life, which means there is some chance of life naturally emerging from an explosion. However, even then odds are simply unknown; it could be the relatively great odds of 1/1000000, or it could be something insurmountably low like 1/10^100, making our very existence itself a miracle.
The scale of the universe shows how paltry the sample size is, not how inevitable life is. I'm not saying there certainly isn't some alien life form out there, just that it is beyond the scope of what can be known, even out of the scope of a ballpark guess.