What Is With The Upswing In Flying Saucer Related News? Psyop or real?
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That equation is a theory, a theory that sounds reasonable, but again one that doesn't have any real data for the most important parameter: emergence of life. It is all nearly random guesswork dressed in a lab coat. Abiogenesis experiments are a pipedream, amino acids are not life.
Life was either supernaturally started, in which case it could be actual 0% (or not), or there isn't a supernatural God or gods kickstarting the process of life, which means there is some chance of life naturally emerging from an explosion. However, even then odds are simply unknown; it could be the relatively great odds of 1/1000000, or it could be something insurmountably low like 1/10^100, making our very existence itself a miracle.
The scale of the universe shows how paltry the sample size is, not how inevitable life is. I'm not saying there certainly isn't some alien life form out there, just that it is beyond the scope of what can be known, even out of the scope of a ballpark guess.
You don't expect to evolve, even a basic life form, in the timeframe of any normal experiment, do you?
This is why you have to take experiments one step at a time.
Here's the problem with that. You're not treating the scale and time of the universe with enough respect.
If X has a chance of occurring that is 1/10^100. In an infinite spacetime frame, the probability of X occurring is not only 1... but the probability of infinitely many X's occurring is 1.
The scope of the universe is ultra-massive. The fact that it's possible that the conditions of life could form on other planets or moons in our own solar system basically eliminates the idea that there is no other life in the universe. It's effectively a guarantee that, somewhere, at some point, no matter how brief, life existed outside of Earth. Sapience is a much harder calculation that needs more data.