Thoughts?
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Doesn't pass the metaphorical sniff test.
Why would a group risk life in prison conducting a daring robbery of half a train car full of ammonium nitrate just to start a few fires? Gasoline is widely available, effective, and raises no suspicion.
The ammonium nitrate likely leaked out of an improperly sealed hopper, or was simply a bookkeeping or dispensing error.
My guess if it was genuinely stolen, the theives are selling it to farmers on the downlow for less than they would've been charged for but still making a killing.
That or the more scary version, they are using it to prepare explosives. Either way, it's not being used for these fires, that can be done by easier, less risky methods.
Or, if we want to stick with plausible conspiracies, was diverted to go to GlowFest 2023: Oklahoma City II, Electric Boogaloo.