You need to understand that the conditions of 2016 are nothing like the current conditions of today.
The crucial combination of necessary factors that led to that single win are completely gone and they won't be coming back.
2016 was never about any 4d chess.
That election was a unique moment in time where populism was the mood of the slight majority of the entire electorate.
Trump was able to capitalize on the key issues of tackling the immigration crisis, stopping free trade gutting the rust belt and he made the case that the Supreme Court balance was on the line too.
Moderate Rs and enough Independent voters were both willing to give Trump a chance in the hope that he would solve issues and become more "Presidential" if elected.
Sadly, we all know how that turned out by 2020.
Moderate Rs and most independents now completely loathe him. He has also lost his outsider populist cred after we see the people that he promoted and endorsed.
He has an actual track record that can be strongly used against him now.
If you are trying to make a case for the potential success of Trump 2024 using the success of Trump 2016 then you are doing the political equivalent of trying to compare apples to oranges.
Eight years is an eternity in politics.
Trump is not the same man and the political landscape has drastically changed.
Trump might be able to win the 2024 primary if enough of the base is stupid enough to anoint him again but he will never win a general election again.
He may have been more coherent, tailoring his administration to his policies, were it not for the constant attacks from permanent alphabet agency bureaucrats and the press who breathlessly published every leak and beat our collective ears incessantly with the campaign of lies about Russia and the "insurrection" and the fruitless impeachments.
It's remarkable he was able to accomplish what he did under those conditions, and I have to wonder what level of vitriol he'd face in a second term.
The crucial combination of necessary factors that led to that single win are completely gone and they won't be coming back. ... That election was a unique moment in time ... 2016 was never about any 4d chess.
Of course 2016 was about "4d chess" meaning that Trump time after time got the media to take contrary positions that benefitted him - this is where the term came from. You're still arguing the Forest Gump theory that he just stumbled into office; it was just a lucky situation not skill.
If you are trying to make a case for the potential success of Trump 2024 using the success of Trump 2016 then you are doing the political equivalent of trying to compare apples to oranges.
The point I am making is that you are divorcing yourself from reality because you have views that are contrary to it. Saying he saved millions forces the left to give him credit or trash the vaccine - that's the reality, regardless of whether he's posturing or actually believes it. You can't handle that for some reason so you say it's imagined 4d chess, and 4d chess is stupid, so therefore Trump is stupid and can't win - that's basically your position here right?
Your argument for Trump being a sure loss is the same as your explanation for a 2024 win. If he wins it'll just be a confluence of lucky events, and he'll lose because there's not a confluence this time. Just rationalization, no real argument at all.
It's pathetic to believe everything is 4d chess, and also pathetic to believe none of it is.
Trump didn't Forest Gump his way into these successes, but that's clearly what you choose to believe because reality isn't what you wish it were.
You need to understand that the conditions of 2016 are nothing like the current conditions of today.
The crucial combination of necessary factors that led to that single win are completely gone and they won't be coming back.
2016 was never about any 4d chess.
That election was a unique moment in time where populism was the mood of the slight majority of the entire electorate.
Trump was able to capitalize on the key issues of tackling the immigration crisis, stopping free trade gutting the rust belt and he made the case that the Supreme Court balance was on the line too.
Moderate Rs and enough Independent voters were both willing to give Trump a chance in the hope that he would solve issues and become more "Presidential" if elected.
Sadly, we all know how that turned out by 2020.
Moderate Rs and most independents now completely loathe him. He has also lost his outsider populist cred after we see the people that he promoted and endorsed.
He has an actual track record that can be strongly used against him now.
If you are trying to make a case for the potential success of Trump 2024 using the success of Trump 2016 then you are doing the political equivalent of trying to compare apples to oranges.
Eight years is an eternity in politics.
Trump is not the same man and the political landscape has drastically changed.
Trump might be able to win the 2024 primary if enough of the base is stupid enough to anoint him again but he will never win a general election again.
He may have been more coherent, tailoring his administration to his policies, were it not for the constant attacks from permanent alphabet agency bureaucrats and the press who breathlessly published every leak and beat our collective ears incessantly with the campaign of lies about Russia and the "insurrection" and the fruitless impeachments.
It's remarkable he was able to accomplish what he did under those conditions, and I have to wonder what level of vitriol he'd face in a second term.
Of course 2016 was about "4d chess" meaning that Trump time after time got the media to take contrary positions that benefitted him - this is where the term came from. You're still arguing the Forest Gump theory that he just stumbled into office; it was just a lucky situation not skill.
The point I am making is that you are divorcing yourself from reality because you have views that are contrary to it. Saying he saved millions forces the left to give him credit or trash the vaccine - that's the reality, regardless of whether he's posturing or actually believes it. You can't handle that for some reason so you say it's imagined 4d chess, and 4d chess is stupid, so therefore Trump is stupid and can't win - that's basically your position here right?
Your argument for Trump being a sure loss is the same as your explanation for a 2024 win. If he wins it'll just be a confluence of lucky events, and he'll lose because there's not a confluence this time. Just rationalization, no real argument at all.