Worth noting that ... irregularities ... in the 2020 elections were not widespread but targeted at specific areas necessary to deliver the win for the Democrats.
That’s why Trump won all the bellwether counties but “lost” the election: there was targeted fraud in half a dozen urban democrat strongholds within “swing states”.
Trump gained overall votes because the overall national turnout was substantially higher in 2020. Trump improved with minority voters but did lose some ground with college educated white men.
In 2020, Trump faced a perfect storm of major disadvantages: BLM riots, COVID pandemic, the economy harmed severely by lockdowns, TDS at max levels and third party voters from 2016 voting Dem in 2020.
It is a cope to say Trump had 10 point leads in every single swing state before the 3am drops.
If you said he had 1-3 pt leads in swing states that would be much more plausible considering the horrendous national environment that he faced.
2020 was the worst national environment in a presidential election for any Republican candidate since 2008.
Every macro factor was against us.
Trump was the incumbent and he didn't even get the usual incumbent advantage due to bad external factors and TDS.
Lockdowns substantially harmed the economy, political unrest due to BLM riots and judges changed election rules to allow mass mail in ballots instead of the state legislatures making election laws.
2020 was a nightmare year for us all.
Everything that could go wrong went wrong for Republicans.
No fucking way that the Dems can ever replicate 2020 again this year.
Don't be blackpilled. What they did in 2020 was a black swan event since Republicans in many states have improved election integrity and the macro environment is against Dems.
Even with all the shenanigans they couldn't make it more than a 1 pt win for their side in each state.
Should have been blown out. At least 10 point push from all the BS. 8 points from hiding the laptop story alone. Wasn't enough, so the late night vote dump added another couple points.
I think the handicap is more like 1-3 points against the right depending on the state in question.
Look at Trump 2020 margins in AZ, GA and Wi. Even with all the shenanigans they couldn't make it more than a 1 pt win for their side in each state.
The Margin in PA was less than 2 points and Michigan was about 3 points.
Worth noting that ... irregularities ... in the 2020 elections were not widespread but targeted at specific areas necessary to deliver the win for the Democrats.
That’s why Trump won all the bellwether counties but “lost” the election: there was targeted fraud in half a dozen urban democrat strongholds within “swing states”.
Atlanta, Detroit, Philly, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Phoenix metros this year need to be closely watched to ensure election integrity.
Atlanta, Detroit, Philly, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Phoenix metros this year need to be closely watched to ensure election integrity.
It is very unlikely that Trump ever had anything close to a 5-10 point lead in any of the swing states(WI, AZ, GA, MI, PA).
Trump won AZ in 2016 by about 3 points. Trump won GA in 2016 by about 5 points.
He won PA, WI, MI by less than 1 point in 2016.
Based on this info, I still standby my original estimate of a total swing of 1-3 points respectively in AZ, WI, PA, MI.
Looking at 2016 GA data, I would say that the swing for that single state was 5.
Pretty much we need to make sure to especially maximize Republican turnout in GA and get a lot of extra eyes on the Atlanta machine.
Trump gained overall votes because the overall national turnout was substantially higher in 2020. Trump improved with minority voters but did lose some ground with college educated white men.
In 2020, Trump faced a perfect storm of major disadvantages: BLM riots, COVID pandemic, the economy harmed severely by lockdowns, TDS at max levels and third party voters from 2016 voting Dem in 2020.
It is a cope to say Trump had 10 point leads in every single swing state before the 3am drops.
If you said he had 1-3 pt leads in swing states that would be much more plausible considering the horrendous national environment that he faced.
2020 was the worst national environment in a presidential election for any Republican candidate since 2008.
Every macro factor was against us.
Trump was the incumbent and he didn't even get the usual incumbent advantage due to bad external factors and TDS.
Lockdowns substantially harmed the economy, political unrest due to BLM riots and judges changed election rules to allow mass mail in ballots instead of the state legislatures making election laws.
2020 was a nightmare year for us all.
Everything that could go wrong went wrong for Republicans.
No fucking way that the Dems can ever replicate 2020 again this year.
Don't be blackpilled. What they did in 2020 was a black swan event since Republicans in many states have improved election integrity and the macro environment is against Dems.
Should have been blown out. At least 10 point push from all the BS. 8 points from hiding the laptop story alone. Wasn't enough, so the late night vote dump added another couple points.
It wasn't 8 points from the laptop story.
Dems and normie independents were not going to let their Trump hatred be quelled by the laptop story.
We have too many people on our side who think Trump had a Reagan level landslide stolen from him
Even without fortification Trump would have gotten max 290-306 electoral votes.
He would have won AZ, GA, WI, PA and maybe MI.