My opinion is that Mastriano actually has a 55 percent shot of winning.
Many of the PA Republican leaders who shunned him in the primaries are coming home and he is finally getting good fundraising support.
The fundamentals of the race favor him: incumbent President is hated in PA, gas prices too high, his opponent is an Attorney General who is weak on violent crime. Shapiro is also running a shitty McAuliffe type campaign focused only on abortion and attacking Mastriano on Jan 6.
I thought Mastriano would be doomed in the general but looking at his campaign, he is doing much better than expected.
If things continue and Mastriano continues to hit the ground with the grassroots and Shapiro continues to bitch about abortion and 1/6, we will be saying Governor Mastriano next year.
The abortion attack has to be neutralized. You can't go around in PA saying that you will ban abortion even in cases of rape and incest. Stick to the 15 week stuff and you will have the better end of the argument. On the other hand, the January 6 thing is such nonsense that I do hope he spends all his time on that.
The only hope for Mastriano is that fundamentals will reassert themselves. Based on that, I predicted that Trump would lose in 2020, and that Republicans will do better than the polls now indicate. The economy is bad, and midterms are notoriously difficult for incumbent parties.
That alone should guarantee a major GOP victory, though I can't say if it will extend to PA. Even in the wave year of 2010, Republicans shot themselves in the foot by nominating crazy people like Sharron Angle.
We don't have any Sharron Angle level candidates this year.
Most questionable guy is GA Senate pick Herschel Walker but he is a likeable football legend. He has documented mental health issues that he has publically talked about and has a few kids out of marriage.
Next ones are Dr. OZ for PA senate and Arizona gov and senate with Kari Lake and Blake Masters. Dr. Oz has a base problem but I think they will finally come home by Nov. Fetterman had a stroke so it is unclear if he makes it to November. Lake and Masters talk mostly about the stolen election but I think they both pivot after the primaries are done and they win.
Mastriano's base is mainly rural socialcons so his abortion stance will sadly remain. I think moving to a 15 weeks ban would help him a lot in Philly suburbs but that is not going to happen.
The fundamentals of the environment along with higher than Trump margins in the rurals will hopefully push Doug Mastriano to victory.
We don't have any Sharron Angle level candidates this year.
You only know in retrospect. If Mastriano gets clobbered 60-40 despite a national wave, then we'll know. I don't think it will happen, but it's possible.
Mastriano's base is mainly rural socialcons so his abortion stance will sadly remain. I think moving to a 15 weeks ban would help him a lot in Philly suburbs but that is not going to happen.
I saw a poll claiming that abortion was the most important issue for 15%. This while Democrats are still outdoing the GOP on the generic ballot, despite the current disaster. It might be that things will change, it is likely that they will, but this is a warning sign.
Youngkin and DeSantis moved quite deftly to 15 weeks without repudiating their pro-life stance. That is what I would like to see. No flip-flops.
I can promise you based on the current state of the campaigns of Shapiro and Mastriano today and the political environment this year that there is no way Mastriano loses by 20 points to Shapiro.
Whoever wins the PA gov race will likely win by 1- 3 points. It will be a close race.
Also I heavily doubt any poll that says 15 percent of the electorate really thinks abortion is the most important issue.
There are systematic polling issues at play. Rural voters are undersampled and college educated urban voters are oversampled.
Abortion won't hurt the GOP chances that much unless one of our candidates goes full Akin with comments about "legitimate rape".
I think pretty much all the Senate races all hinge on Biden approval and poliitical environment which are both very favorable for the GOP's odds. Candidate quality is less of an issue here.
The governor races are less nationalized and focus on local issues a bit more so candidate quality does matter more here.
The GOP is still favored in many governor races. The only governor races that the GOP are not the heavy favorites on are the PA and WI governor races.
The GA and AZ governor races will likely go fine. MI governor race will likely be a loss though sadly. None of the GOP candidates seem like they can beat Whitmer.
My opinion is that Mastriano actually has a 55 percent shot of winning.
Many of the PA Republican leaders who shunned him in the primaries are coming home and he is finally getting good fundraising support.
The fundamentals of the race favor him: incumbent President is hated in PA, gas prices too high, his opponent is an Attorney General who is weak on violent crime. Shapiro is also running a shitty McAuliffe type campaign focused only on abortion and attacking Mastriano on Jan 6.
I thought Mastriano would be doomed in the general but looking at his campaign, he is doing much better than expected.
If things continue and Mastriano continues to hit the ground with the grassroots and Shapiro continues to bitch about abortion and 1/6, we will be saying Governor Mastriano next year.
The abortion attack has to be neutralized. You can't go around in PA saying that you will ban abortion even in cases of rape and incest. Stick to the 15 week stuff and you will have the better end of the argument. On the other hand, the January 6 thing is such nonsense that I do hope he spends all his time on that.
The only hope for Mastriano is that fundamentals will reassert themselves. Based on that, I predicted that Trump would lose in 2020, and that Republicans will do better than the polls now indicate. The economy is bad, and midterms are notoriously difficult for incumbent parties.
That alone should guarantee a major GOP victory, though I can't say if it will extend to PA. Even in the wave year of 2010, Republicans shot themselves in the foot by nominating crazy people like Sharron Angle.
We don't have any Sharron Angle level candidates this year.
Most questionable guy is GA Senate pick Herschel Walker but he is a likeable football legend. He has documented mental health issues that he has publically talked about and has a few kids out of marriage.
Next ones are Dr. OZ for PA senate and Arizona gov and senate with Kari Lake and Blake Masters. Dr. Oz has a base problem but I think they will finally come home by Nov. Fetterman had a stroke so it is unclear if he makes it to November. Lake and Masters talk mostly about the stolen election but I think they both pivot after the primaries are done and they win.
Mastriano's base is mainly rural socialcons so his abortion stance will sadly remain. I think moving to a 15 weeks ban would help him a lot in Philly suburbs but that is not going to happen.
The fundamentals of the environment along with higher than Trump margins in the rurals will hopefully push Doug Mastriano to victory.
You only know in retrospect. If Mastriano gets clobbered 60-40 despite a national wave, then we'll know. I don't think it will happen, but it's possible.
I saw a poll claiming that abortion was the most important issue for 15%. This while Democrats are still outdoing the GOP on the generic ballot, despite the current disaster. It might be that things will change, it is likely that they will, but this is a warning sign.
Youngkin and DeSantis moved quite deftly to 15 weeks without repudiating their pro-life stance. That is what I would like to see. No flip-flops.
I can promise you based on the current state of the campaigns of Shapiro and Mastriano today and the political environment this year that there is no way Mastriano loses by 20 points to Shapiro.
Whoever wins the PA gov race will likely win by 1- 3 points. It will be a close race.
Also I heavily doubt any poll that says 15 percent of the electorate really thinks abortion is the most important issue.
There are systematic polling issues at play. Rural voters are undersampled and college educated urban voters are oversampled.
Abortion won't hurt the GOP chances that much unless one of our candidates goes full Akin with comments about "legitimate rape".
I think pretty much all the Senate races all hinge on Biden approval and poliitical environment which are both very favorable for the GOP's odds. Candidate quality is less of an issue here.
The governor races are less nationalized and focus on local issues a bit more so candidate quality does matter more here.
The GOP is still favored in many governor races. The only governor races that the GOP are not the heavy favorites on are the PA and WI governor races.
The GA and AZ governor races will likely go fine. MI governor race will likely be a loss though sadly. None of the GOP candidates seem like they can beat Whitmer.