It’s been clear to anyone following and observing what we can through commercial SAR telemetry what he was planning to do however for a full on armored assault Putin needed frozen ground. Which didn’t happen. It was a warm Jan/Feb with no signs of changing as we go into March and the spring thaw.
I think the full invasion and taking of at least eastern Ukraine up to the major river maybe off the table. Unless Putin wants to lose hundreds of armored units to the mud and ATGMs.
What does seem to be on the table is securing Donbas and also taking Odessa and southern Ukraine cutting Ukraine off from ports and creating a land bridge between Crimea and Moldova.
On paper the Ukrainian military was much larger than the little green men back in 2014 and got routed. But this is not the Ukraine of 2014 and it’s not the Russian army of 2014 either. Russian has had the chance to modernize its tactics and gear in Syria over the last half decade.
He’s already got further division between NATO states especially the Baltic states and Germany out of this.
Not going to try and predict any outcomes but the Ukrainians just having been preparing for a full scale war at all, until maybe few days ago. And they had plenty of time, literally years but the last few months in particular. Meanwhile they didn't even check on all these population shelters from the Soviet times, not even such most basic things costing almost nothing.
I still say somehow nothing will happen anyway, but that's based solely on my wishing so.
It’s been clear to anyone following and observing what we can through commercial SAR telemetry what he was planning to do however for a full on armored assault Putin needed frozen ground. Which didn’t happen. It was a warm Jan/Feb with no signs of changing as we go into March and the spring thaw.
I think the full invasion and taking of at least eastern Ukraine up to the major river maybe off the table. Unless Putin wants to lose hundreds of armored units to the mud and ATGMs.
What does seem to be on the table is securing Donbas and also taking Odessa and southern Ukraine cutting Ukraine off from ports and creating a land bridge between Crimea and Moldova.
On paper the Ukrainian military was much larger than the little green men back in 2014 and got routed. But this is not the Ukraine of 2014 and it’s not the Russian army of 2014 either. Russian has had the chance to modernize its tactics and gear in Syria over the last half decade.
He’s already got further division between NATO states especially the Baltic states and Germany out of this.
Not going to try and predict any outcomes but the Ukrainians just having been preparing for a full scale war at all, until maybe few days ago. And they had plenty of time, literally years but the last few months in particular. Meanwhile they didn't even check on all these population shelters from the Soviet times, not even such most basic things costing almost nothing.
I still say somehow nothing will happen anyway, but that's based solely on my wishing so.