His predictions are always optimistic but if Raptor engine production can pick up as expected, their Superheavy tests succeed, and nothing else tries to stop them (like a natural disaster at Boca Chica, or the government) then there's no reason they couldn't have a landing in 5 years. An unmanned landing that is.
More likely they crash into the surface and try again at the next Earth-Mars alignment.
His predictions are always optimistic but if Raptor engine production can pick up as expected, their Superheavy tests succeed, and nothing else tries to stop them (like a natural disaster at Boca Chica, or the government) then there's no reason they couldn't have a landing in 5 years. An unmanned landing that is.
More likely they crash into the surface and try again at the next Earth-Mars alignment.
First flight for the full stack is in about a month, so he has 4 years to practice landing on earth before then.